News Flashes The Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap

The Presidents of the United States and China met in Beijing this week as US equity markets continued to ignore geopolitical volatility and power to new record highs on the back of AI optimism. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit fresh peaks during the summit, a reminder that markets are, for now, choosing to…

News Flashes Predicting through the fog

Predicting through the fog

Markets were once again driven this week by news and rumours surrounding the war between the US and Iran. Equities rallied earlier in the week because of promises of a peace agreement, only to pull back when fresh exchanges of fire erupted in the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq powered to fresh…

News Flashes On cloud nine

On cloud nine

Four members of the Magnificent Seven Big Tech companies reported robust first-quarter earnings yesterday, making it one of the most consequential days of the earnings season. The four companies – Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta – account for 17% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation and are bellwethers for the direction of Artificial Intelligence (AI)…

News Flashes Defying wartime gravity

Defying wartime gravity

Global equities markets have traded relatively flat this week, holding on to the exceptionally strong gains they have made so far in April. Not only have the markets fully reversed the rout seen in March, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have continued to edge their way to new highs. And with the Dow Jones…

News Flashes The V- shaped recovery

The V- shaped recovery

Markets were awash in red ink in March 2026 as investors digested the impact of US and Israeli military action against Iran on oil markets and global supply chains. In one month, the S&P 500 lost 5.4% of its value, the Nasdaq shed 7.1%, and the MSCI World dropped 6.4%. But not for the first…

News Flashes Mixed messages

Mixed messages

Markets endured another week of volatile trading as investors tried to make sense of the trajectory of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the campaign would wrap up in two to three weeks boosted optimism early in the week – which gave way to anxiety following his address to…

News Flashes Jawboning

Jawboning

Four weeks into the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, the media landscape is proving to be as consequential a battlefront as the Persian Gulf. As Bloomberg observed this week, each side has kept up attacks even amidst renewed efforts to ‘jawbone’* the other into a resolution. US President Donald Trump can claim he is correct in…

News Flashes Escalation or self-preservation

Escalation or self-preservation

Three weeks into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the conflict appears to have entered a dangerous new phase. Israeli strikes on South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas field, prompted Tehran to retaliate with attacks on energy infrastructure across neighbouring Gulf states. Markets responded swiftly to the prospects of a wider regional war and…

News Flashes The boiling frog

The boiling frog

With the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran ending its second week, financial markets are grappling with what the long-term consequences might be. For now, markets are not pricing in the worst-case scenarios, despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) describing the situation as the largest disruption to oil supply in world history. Iran’s effective closure of…