In the words of Helmut Kohl, the late former chancellor of Germany, Europe has been in a poor state since the transition to the 21st century. While it has largely remained prosperous and peaceful, the continent has fallen behind in terms of growth, innovation, and military prowess since the end of the Cold War. But…
When the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President George Bush ushered in what they described as a New World Order. This was to be a peaceful era of greater cooperation between world powers – and indeed, decades…
In South Africa’s short history as a true democracy, the Finance Minister and National Treasury have always run a credible, professional budgeting process. As such, the last-minute postponement of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget speech for the upcoming tax year came as a shock to economists, investors, and the public at large. But given that…
For the past 150 years or so, the trend in the US has been towards an enlarged role for the federal government in people’s lives and the economy. As historian Heather Cox Richardson writes in an insightful Substack post, the trend towards bigger government started in earnest with Abraham Lincoln, US President between 1861 and…
Recently inaugurated US President Donald Trump has hit the ground running, issuing a record number of executive orders (more than 50 already) for a new president’s first 100 days. Covering everything from the status of trans people in the military and sports to foreign aid, Trump’s executive actions are meant to dramatically reshape the US’s…
Undoubtedly the vexing question this week was whether a hedge fund-backed Chinese AI startup had punctured the technology stock market bubble, with news about a hyper-efficient new AI model from China’s DeepSeek sending Big Tech stocks tumbling at the start of the week. It seems like no coincidence that this news broke amid US and…
Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump hit the ground running this week, issuing a flurry of executive orders on his first day and moving markets worldwide with comments about oil, tariffs, interest rates and AI. The early days of his second term suggest that a rollercoaster ride lies ahead, but that reality may yet constrain…
In one of our early newsletters for 2024, we said that “there may be scope for acceptable returns, albeit at lower levels than 2023” As it turns out, 2024 has been a record-breaking year for equities – driven by the US – that has exceeded our expectations and those of most analysts and economists. Although…
This week, the South African economy surprised with a shock decline in GDP of 0.3% for the third quarter. The numbers contradicted economists’ forecasts that GDP would expand by around 0.4% for the period, with the expectation that lower energy prices, a prolonged pause on load-shedding, and confidence in the Government of National Unity (GNU)…
