Many phenomena, including test scores, height, and long-term daily temperatures follow what statisticians call a normal distribution. Plotted on a graph, the values resemble a bell-shaped curve where most data points cluster around the average (mean) and the probabilities of extreme outliers become very insignificant as one moves further from the mean. But, in a…
A perfect storm rained on the South African rand’s parade this week, with the local currency weakening by 3.2% against the dollar since Monday and 5% since last Thursday. This is after holding up reasonably well against a surging dollar in the first two days after Donald Trump was named President-Elect in the US. With…
This week turned out to be exceptionally rewarding for gamblers and traders who bet on Donald Trump. In line with bookmakers’ odds and predictive markets – the probability of a Trump victory on Polymarket was 65% as mentioned in last week’s News Flash. Contrary to polls showing a close race for the presidency, Trump comfortably…
As we noted in our January opinion piece titled the year of the voter, 2024 was being billed as the biggest election year in history with dozens of countries representing around 4 billion people expected to hold general or presidential elections. However, no other election will be as consequential for investors and the world economy…
As a recent article in The Economist points out, America remains an economic powerhouse with performance that readily outperforms every other major economy in the world. Since 1990, the US economy has grown from two-fifths of the GDP of the G7 nations to half. Output per person is some 30% higher than in Western Europe and…
Earlier this week, Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson, both from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), together with James A Robinson from the University of Chicago were awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics. They were rewarded for their exploration of the connection between a country’s societal institutions and economic development. The theory that…
Following the formation of the Government of National Unit (GNU) in June of this year, South Africa’s markets and economy appear to be enjoying a new era of positivity highlighted by an event earlier this week where business and government joined hands to launch ‘phase 2’ of a compact they launched last year. Business leaders…
This has been a relatively action-packed week on the geopolitical front, with Israel stepping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin rattling his nuclear sabre and China test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean. As these developments show, we are living in an era of heightened geopolitical tension,…
After months of speculation about the size and timing of the first interest rate cut in the US, the Federal Reserve slashed the rate by 50bps this week. Rather than regarding it as a sign of the Fed panicking about the state of the economy, most observers see it as an attempt to ensure a…
