Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as the Chairman of the Fed Reserve in May this year, describes AI as a “structurally disinflationary” force in the economy. He argues that AI will lead to an enormous productivity boom that will lower business costs and expand output, allowing the economy to grow faster without adding to…
For as long as people have traded in financial instruments, they have used a range of tools and mathematical models to forecast markets, assess risk and guide investment decisions. The goal has always been the same: to anticipate where markets might move, so that investors can maximise their returns by selling and buying assets at…
Many investors are starting to question whether passive index-tracking funds such as passive mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are distorting global equities’ markets. While we acknowledge that passive investing can introduce inefficiencies into the market over time, we believe that the concerns are overstated and that passive vehicles remain extremely efficient building blocks for…
“Extreme scepticism, which is typical of initial reactions to truly transformative events whether in geopolitics or financial markets, will probably turn out to be wrong.” These words from Anatole Kaletsky, Chief Economist at Gavekal Research, are a powerful reminder of the reality that equities markets often surprise fearful investors by rapidly rebounding from events that…
Emerging market equities have enjoyed a remarkable bull run over the past 18 months, staging a turnaround after more than a decade of subdued performance. During 2025 and the first half of this year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index comfortably outpaced the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index in US dollar terms. A commodities…
In response to concerns raised by clients around the potential for continued dollar weakness going forward, we have the pleasure of including a recently posted 8-minute podcast by Jason Borbora-Sheen, Portfolio Manager at Ninety One, who discusses how, after expectations of a structural US dollar bear market in 2025, conditions appear to have shifted. The…
This research article titled “The Peace That Passes All Understanding”, written by Tom Holland and published with kind permission from Gavekal Research, examines the complexity and fragility of the 14-day ceasefire reached on Tuesday, 7 April, just ahead of Donald Trump’s 8 pm Eastern Time deadline. While the situation remains tenuous, we believe that the…
After more than a decade of disappointment, emerging market equities mounted a strong comeback in 2025. The MSCI Emerging Equities Markets Index surged 33.6% last year, compared to a 21.1% gain posted by its developed markets equivalent. This was a remarkable turnaround from years of underperformance that saw the index drop over 40% from its…
The world economy and markets have experienced multiple disruptions over the past six years. From the COVID-19 economic shutdowns in 2020 and the cost-of-living crisis in 2022, to the 7 October 2023 attacks in Israel and this year’s war in Iran, along with the AI boom and the software bust, we have experienced what it…
