The USDZAR exchange rate has been a very informative instrument through which to view major political events that have unfolded in our country over the last 20 years. Knowledge of the fair value estimate, awareness of the mean-reversion characteristics of the fair value residual, and the ability to decompose the residual into an Emerging Market…
The third quarter of 2024 might have been good for equities, but it was less so for the US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) dropped around 4.8% against a basket of currencies, turning in its worst quarterly performance in nearly two years. According to Reuters, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data indicates that net bets…
With global equity markets at record highs, advisors and investors can be justifiably concerned as to the timing of committing large sums of money to this asset class. In this article, we have researched the data of global equities performances over the past 30 years, using the MSCI World as a proxy, and using multiple…
The following article was commissioned by Dynasty for our clients and compiled by our research partner, Analytics Consulting, as represented on our Investment Committee. Since South Africa went to the polls on 29 May of this year, the USD/ZAR exchange rate has moved from a level of R18.40/$ on that day to a level of…
As we enter the second half of the year, the world’s attention is turning to the blockbuster event of the political calendar: the US presidential election in November. Judging from previous election years, we can expect volatility to increase as investors and traders try to predict who the winner will be and what impact their…
A question that clients often ask us is how much of a risk the high levels of sovereign indebtedness in the US pose to the global economy and markets. With close to $35 trillion in national debt and a debt to GDP ratio of around 123%, the US government’s debt situation is serious enough to…
The following article authored by esteemed political analyst RW Johnson, provides his most interesting insights into the “bad faith” bargaining that occurred in the lead-up to the GNU; the ANC’s determination to exclude the DA from any key posts in the national economic cluster; a possible scenario in which the EFF and MKP may reunite…
For many years we have been consistent in our belief that offshore investments offer a far better set of opportunities for our South African-based investors than local options. At the same time, some of our domestic investors may need to protect themselves against the volatility that the local currency and the global equity markets may…
Close to a year has passed since the rand tested new record lows in the wake of the Lady R debacle. With general elections just around the corner and markets widely expecting the US Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year, now is an opportune time to take stock of the rand’s direction.…
