The AI infrastructure boom and elevated oil prices amid the conflict in the Middle East have split the world economy into a small set of winners and a larger set of losers, even as the global economic growth outlook remains surprisingly stable. This is according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook…
Severe sell-offs continued in global bond markets this week, pushing borrowing costs and yields in the US, UK and Europe to multi-decade highs. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, before then easing to around 5.25% yesterday. The 30-year yield touched a 24-year high of 5.61% before pulling back.…
Macroeconomics in 2026 has been all about the price of oil – a factor that has given Iran an extraordinary amount of sway over the direction of global interest rates. By constraining shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and keeping the conflict in the Middle East simmering, Tehran has driven the Brent Crude oil price…
In a move that was widely expected by the markets, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point to the 3.75% – 4% target range on Wednesday this week. The decision was unanimous, indicating that all 12 members of the Fed’s board are concerned about the persistence of sticky inflation. The hike drew a…
Equities markets had notched up healthy gains in August, with the MSCI World Index gaining 2.6% and the S&P 500 rising 2.7%. This week, the mood soured. Oil prices and geopolitical fears came back into focus after a month in which markets were driven higher by impressive second-quarter corporate earnings and optimism about the AI…
The idea of seasonal effects in investing is not new. As far back as 1894, the American humourist Mark Twain joked about the dangers of trading in October, which he quipped was one of several months that are bad for speculating in stocks. Everyone knows about Santa Claus rallies, “sell in May and go away,”…
Nvidia, the bellwether stock for the AI trade, has crowned a strong earnings season with quarterly results that have smashed analysts’ expectations. The semiconductor giant, which is the world’s most valuable company, doubled revenues year-over-year to nearly $100 billion. Perhaps even more importantly, Nvidia indicated that it sees no sign of AI-related demand for its…
The South African rand has had a strong year in the face of global uncertainty, having strengthened by approximately 3% year-to-date. The currency has traded at an average of R16.41 against the dollar in 2026, compared to R17.87 in 2025 and R18.35 in 2024, despite the war in Iran and tariff policies from the US…
Equities continued a winning streak this week, helped by the release of encouraging macroeconomic data that alleviated rate-hiking fears. Producer and consumer inflation in the US rose less than expected. This, paired with an increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits, signalled that the Fed may have made the right call by…
