News flash Tariff turbulence

Tariff turbulence

Recently inaugurated US President Donald Trump has hit the ground running, issuing a record number of executive orders (more than 50 already) for a new president’s first 100 days. Covering everything from the status of trans people in the military and sports to foreign aid, Trump’s executive actions are meant to dramatically reshape the US’s…

News flash AI and Jevons Paradox

AI and Jevons Paradox

Undoubtedly the vexing question this week was whether a hedge fund-backed Chinese AI startup had punctured the technology stock market bubble, with news about a hyper-efficient new AI model from China’s DeepSeek sending Big Tech stocks tumbling at the start of the week. It seems like no coincidence that this news broke amid US and…

News flash It’s all about Trump!

It’s all about Trump!

Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump hit the ground running this week, issuing a flurry of executive orders on his first day and moving markets worldwide with comments about oil, tariffs, interest rates and AI. The early days of his second term suggest that a rollercoaster ride lies ahead, but that reality may yet constrain…

News flash Exceeding expectations

Exceeding expectations

In one of our early newsletters for 2024, we said that “there may be scope for acceptable returns, albeit at lower levels than 2023” As it turns out, 2024 has been a record-breaking year for equities – driven by the US – that has exceeded our expectations and those of most analysts and economists. Although…

News flash A dry season for South Africa’s GDP

A dry season for South Africa’s GDP

This week, the South African economy surprised with a shock decline in GDP of 0.3% for the third quarter. The numbers contradicted economists’ forecasts that GDP would expand by around 0.4% for the period, with the expectation that lower energy prices, a prolonged pause on load-shedding, and confidence in the Government of National Unity (GNU)…

News flash Take profits or hold the line?

Take profits or hold the line?

The S&P 500 powered to its 52nd record high of 2024 this week, indicating that the year may end on a really strong note. The index has returned around 26% in dollar terms for the year-to-date, giving investors every reason to smile. Yet, the extent of the strong bull run from October 2022 into 2024…

News flash Trump’s Two Tails

Trump’s Two Tails

Many phenomena, including test scores, height, and long-term daily temperatures follow what statisticians call a normal distribution. Plotted on a graph, the values resemble a bell-shaped curve where most data points cluster around the average (mean) and the probabilities of extreme outliers become very insignificant as one moves further from the mean. But, in a…

News flash Decoding this week’s rand rout

Decoding this week’s rand rout

A perfect storm rained on the South African rand’s parade this week, with the local currency weakening by 3.2% against the dollar since Monday and 5% since last Thursday. This is after holding up reasonably well against a surging dollar in the first two days after Donald Trump was named President-Elect in the US. With…

News flash MAGA markets

MAGA markets

This week turned out to be exceptionally rewarding for gamblers and traders who bet on Donald Trump. In line with bookmakers’ odds and predictive markets – the probability of a Trump victory on Polymarket was 65% as mentioned in last week’s News Flash. Contrary to polls showing a close race for the presidency, Trump comfortably…