News flash MAGA markets

MAGA markets

This week turned out to be exceptionally rewarding for gamblers and traders who bet on Donald Trump. In line with bookmakers’ odds and predictive markets – the probability of a Trump victory on Polymarket was 65% as mentioned in last week’s News Flash. Contrary to polls showing a close race for the presidency, Trump comfortably…

News flash Pollsters, punters and prophecies

Pollsters, punters and prophecies

As we noted in our January opinion piece titled the year of the voter, 2024 was being billed as the biggest election year in history with dozens of countries representing around 4 billion people expected to hold general or presidential elections. However, no other election will be as consequential for investors and the world economy…

News flash The Narrow Corridor

The Narrow Corridor

Earlier this week, Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson, both from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), together with James A Robinson from the University of Chicago were awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics. They were rewarded for their exploration of the connection between a country’s societal institutions and economic development. The theory that…

News flash A compact stretched

A compact stretched

Following the formation of the Government of National Unit (GNU) in June of this year, South Africa’s markets and economy appear to be enjoying a new era of positivity highlighted by an event earlier this week where business and government joined hands to launch ‘phase 2’ of a compact they launched last year. Business leaders…

News flash Geopolitical instability, economic stability

Geopolitical instability, economic stability

This has been a relatively action-packed week on the geopolitical front, with Israel stepping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin rattling his nuclear sabre and China test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean. As these developments show, we are living in an era of heightened geopolitical tension,…

News flash The first cut is the deepest

The first cut is the deepest

After months of speculation about the size and timing of the first interest rate cut in the US, the Federal Reserve slashed the rate by 50bps this week. Rather than regarding it as a sign of the Fed panicking about the state of the economy, most observers see it as an attempt to ensure a…

News flash Isolationism versus internationalism

Isolationism versus internationalism

With wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, new powers such as China and India asserting themselves, and the economic rise of the global south, the geopolitical environment is in flux. Political developments in the US, as the world’s hegemon, will have an outsized effect on global politics and, consequently, the world economy. Decisions…

News flash A delicate dance

A delicate dance

After months of debate and anticipation about when the Fed will cut interest rates, investors have locked in September 18 as the date we’ll see interest rates drop for the first time since 2020. The discussion is no longer if or when the Fed will slash rates, but by how much. A 25bps cut would…