Since the lows on 23 March 2020, the S&P500 has bounced by just over 50%. This has largely been driven by technology heavyweights, such as Apple (up 102%), Amazon (up 65%) and Tesla, which is likely to soon be added to the S&P500, (up 280%!). Together the top technology companies comprise about 22% of this…
Since the heavy crash and subsequent rally in global equity markets in the first half of this year, many investment market participants have been asking about the extent and timing of the recovery from the rapid and devastating impact of the fight against the spread of the Covid-19 virus. These questions are often based on…
A question we continue to pose to ourselves is – will it be the ‘P’ or the ‘E’? This vexing subject was debated in our opinion piece dated 3 July under the same header. As major equity markets (the P), will end yet stronger in July, we note that the forward consensus earnings forecasts (the ‘E’), remains mostly…
This week bore witness to various political leaders pursuing personal and party agendas above all else, risking the prosperity of their own countries in the process. From the closure of US and Chinese consulates, to President Trump’s protectionist election campaign, and President Xi Jinping’s clashes with India, Britain, Canada, and Australia, the scale of disruption…
In a similar pattern to that of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it appears to be Main Street (small businesses, the middle class, and the general economy), and not Wall Street (large investment firms, major corporations, and super-wealthy individuals), who are carrying the real burden of the economic impacts of the coronavirus. Millions of people around the…
This week saw global equity markets rise once again, in defiance of worsening economic fundamentals and forward earnings forecasts, primarily caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. To explain this paradox, we have included a link to a piece by Robert J Shiller, an American economist, entitled “Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market.” Further underlying our cautious approach…
This week Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, announced that the decline in GDP for 2020 would be worse than forecast a few months ago, and that the Fund has lowered its expectations for an economic rebound next year. Meanwhile in South Africa, our economy is forecast to contract by around 7% for the current…
“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” – Benjamin Graham, a British-born American economist, professor, and investor Benjamin Graham’s statement was made in the context that the future is very difficult to predict and that decisions should be based on real facts and analysis rather than risky,…
“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.” – John Maynard Keynes, a British economist These words especially resonate with us today as we evaluate the impact that Covid-19 will have on consumer behaviour and the way businesses will be reshaped. For example, to maintain business sustainability…
