Fears that Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks are in a bubble reemerged this week as a few prominent American CEOs and various market commentators suggested that valuations are becoming overheated. Notably,…
Markets were lifted by a range of tailwinds this week. Positive talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping boosted hopes that trade tensions would ease. Markets…
Precious metals prices corrected sharply this week amid market optimism about easing trade tensions between China and the US, as well as traders locking in profits following months of strong…
US equities have experienced another week of helter-skelter trading, repeating the pattern of recoveries and sell-offs we have seen several times this year. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the…
Government shutdowns are a recurring feature of US politics, caused by partisan standoffs about government spending priorities. The latest shutdown, the first in nearly seven years and the third across…
We are seeing many of the old assumptions break down as post-pandemic inflation remains stickier than expected and consumer behaviour evolves, as illustrated in two different opinion pieces that were…
While the initial reactions to Wednesday’s Fed rate cut – the first for the year – were muted to slightly negative, US equities markets resumed the trend to be in…
Russia and Israel both overstepped once sacred geopolitical boundaries this week, but markets have mostly shrugged off the drama. On Tuesday, Israel carried out an airstrike in Doha that targeted…
The S&P 500 keeps hitting fresh record highs and is up nearly 11% for the year to date. This is a remarkable turnaround from the “Liberation Day” crash in April,…
Emerging markets have been a neglected market sector by investors for a number of years, but they are coming back into vogue. Stock markets and bonds in emerging market countries…
Markets are on tenterhooks as they await the US Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. On the one hand, equities have been primed for a rate cut as deep as…
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices once again set fresh records this week, amid hopes that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, with some suggesting an…
Equities markets continued to hold near record highs this week, with traders ignoring warnings that the risks of a recession in the US are rising. The Nasdaq and the S&P…
Blowout earnings from Big Tech firms for the second quarter (Q2) offer some validation for the years of heavy investment these companies have made in artificial intelligence (AI). Amazon, Apple,…
With tariffs set to take effect on Thursday, 1 August, markets continued to trend slightly upwards in a week ruled by the same themes that have defined US President Donald…
Back in April, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to impose sweeping tariffs on US trading partners triggered a massive slump in equities. Stocks bounced back fast after Trump…
Fulfilling his pledge to deliver his flagship domestic legislation by Independence Day, US President Donald Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law today, after it was…
The US entered the war between Iran and Israel late last week, but the flare-up in tensions was over within days. Financial markets shrugged off the drama, treating the whole…
Israel’s airstrikes against Iranian targets have rattled geopolitical nerves over the past week, but the impact on financial markets has been relatively muted so far. Gold and the US dollar,…
The US and China have made a tentative trade agreement this week that will hopefully mark an easing of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies. But while US…
Investec Wealth & Investment International has released a sobering report that quantifies the cost of 15 years of underperformance to the South African economy. Its numbers suggest that the economy…
US equity markets have traditionally moved mostly in response to company earnings and forecasts, economic data, interest rate expectations, and, sometimes, geopolitical risk factors. But as we head deeper into…
A South African delegation led by President Cyril Ramaphosa finally met face-to-face with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday. While the meeting delivered some of the…
Markets continued and accelerated their climb this week as US President Donald Trump backed down on some of his more extreme tariff proposals against China. Investors cheered a de-escalation in…
Equity markets have enjoyed a month of sharp increases, interrupted only by retreats in mid-April. The relief rally has seen indices retrace many of the losses they racked up following…
It feels like a lifetime, but Tuesday this week marked the 100th day of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The US President has, during this time, already reshaped…
Margaret Thatcher, the former British Prime Minister, who once declared that “The lady’s not for turning,” was contemptuous of politicians that backtracked on political convictions in the face of public…
The South African rand has a well-deserved reputation for volatility, but April has been a month of particularly choppy trading. Since the start of the month, we have seen the…
US President Donald Trump’s chaotic approach to tariffs with the country’s major trading partners caused more upheaval in the markets this week, and there is no off-ramp in sight. Investors…
US President Donald Trump’s chaotic approach to global trading relationships continues to unsettle equities markets, with the automotive sector in his crosshairs this week. Trump has announced a 25% tariff…
We’re celebrating our 20th anniversary this month. With this milestone, Dynasty Asset Management marks two decades of providing independent and leading wealth management solutions to our clients, always prioritising their…
Geopolitical dealmaking under US President Donald Trump has always been defined by a transactional approach, where personal relationships, economic leverage, and unpredictability take centre stage. In his last term, he…
A new round of tariff impositions, threats and walk-backs from US President Donald Trump sent markets reeling and introduced a new age of trade uncertainty. The Nasdaq Composite and the…
In the words of Helmut Kohl, the late former chancellor of Germany, Europe has been in a poor state since the transition to the 21st century. While it has largely…
When the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President George Bush ushered in…
In South Africa’s short history as a true democracy, the Finance Minister and National Treasury have always run a credible, professional budgeting process. As such, the last-minute postponement of Finance…
For the past 150 years or so, the trend in the US has been towards an enlarged role for the federal government in people’s lives and the economy. As historian…
Recently inaugurated US President Donald Trump has hit the ground running, issuing a record number of executive orders (more than 50 already) for a new president’s first 100 days. Covering…
Undoubtedly the vexing question this week was whether a hedge fund-backed Chinese AI startup had punctured the technology stock market bubble, with news about a hyper-efficient new AI model from…
Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump hit the ground running this week, issuing a flurry of executive orders on his first day and moving markets worldwide with comments about oil,…
In one of our early newsletters for 2024, we said that “there may be scope for acceptable returns, albeit at lower levels than 2023” As it turns out, 2024 has…
This week, the South African economy surprised with a shock decline in GDP of 0.3% for the third quarter. The numbers contradicted economists’ forecasts that GDP would expand by around…
The S&P 500 powered to its 52nd record high of 2024 this week, indicating that the year may end on a really strong note. The index has returned around 26%…
Many phenomena, including test scores, height, and long-term daily temperatures follow what statisticians call a normal distribution. Plotted on a graph, the values resemble a bell-shaped curve where most data…
A perfect storm rained on the South African rand’s parade this week, with the local currency weakening by 3.2% against the dollar since Monday and 5% since last Thursday. This…
This week turned out to be exceptionally rewarding for gamblers and traders who bet on Donald Trump. In line with bookmakers’ odds and predictive markets – the probability of a…
As we noted in our January opinion piece titled the year of the voter, 2024 was being billed as the biggest election year in history with dozens of countries representing…
As a recent article in The Economist points out, America remains an economic powerhouse with performance that readily outperforms every other major economy in the world. Since 1990, the US…
Earlier this week, Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson, both from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), together with James A Robinson from the University of Chicago were awarded the 2024…
Following the formation of the Government of National Unit (GNU) in June of this year, South Africa’s markets and economy appear to be enjoying a new era of positivity highlighted…
This has been a relatively action-packed week on the geopolitical front, with Israel stepping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin rattling his nuclear sabre…
After months of speculation about the size and timing of the first interest rate cut in the US, the Federal Reserve slashed the rate by 50bps this week. Rather than…
With wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, new powers such as China and India asserting themselves, and the economic rise of the global south, the geopolitical environment is…
After months of debate and anticipation about when the Fed will cut interest rates, investors have locked in September 18 as the date we’ll see interest rates drop for the…
As we have written in previous News Flashes, August has, on average, been the worst month for the stock market since 1986. With the Flash Crash that started the month,…
The “hype cycle” is a term popularised by Gartner – a research firm listed on the S&P 500 – and one that is common knowledge in Silicon Valley. Since the…
Global equities markets continued their dramatic recovery this week following the Flash Crash that troughed on Monday, August 5th. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices have now notched up…
The equities sell-off that was sparked on Thursday last week, ignited on Monday with Asian markets plummeting at the start of trade. Japan’s Nikkei Index dropped by more than 12%…
The fear factor impacted markets this week, with a robust rally on Wednesday giving way to a sharp drop on Thursday across major indices, with a downward slope continuing today.…
As we noted in our News Flash last week, there are signs of a rotation underway as investors start to switch into small caps and industry sectors that have underperformed…
With recent US inflation data surpassing expectations and increasing the probability that the Fed may cut interest rates in September; we are starting to see some signs of a different…
As speculation continues to mount about whether Joe Biden will drop out of the US presidential race, we are seeing the markets start to position for a potential win for…
With global inflation returning to normal ranges – albeit slightly slower than anticipated a year or even six months ago – some economists are questioning whether investors should still be…
The outcome of South Africa’s elections on May 29 was, as we noted in our newsletter last week, an unexpected but most positive turn of events. Although in the weeks…
The Democratic Alliance (DA) and African National Congress (ANC) signed off a historic agreement to form a government of national unity (GNU) just as South Africa’s new cohort of parliamentarians…
A trio of election results this past week serves to highlight just how inaccurate markets can be in anticipating and pricing political risks, especially in emerging markets. Investors and analysts…
Over the past two years, the impact of interest rates on the US economy is a subject we have returned to multiple times in our newsletters. The conventional wisdom is…
Rhyme-as-reason is a cognitive bias where humans are more likely to retain and believe advice phrased as a rhyme. Think of the harmless saying: “An apple a day keeps the…
With less than two weeks to go before South Africa goes to the polls, the African National Congress (ANC) is pulling out all the stops to secure an outright majority…
Over the past two weeks, several large foreign investors have announced plans to abandon or cut back their investments in the South African economy. Oil major, Shell, plans to exit…
Last year, Tesla was riding high as a member of the Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks that fueled stock market gains throughout the year. This year, the pioneering electric carmaker’s…
Over the past decade or so, we have seen geopolitical tensions start to flare up again, following the relative stability from the end of the Cold War in 1991 marked…
History abounds with kingmakers – figures who didn’t have the outright power to take the crown for themselves – yet had the clout to determine who would wear it next.…
Last year, a supergroup called The Magnificent Seven stormed the stock market and accounted for an outsized portion of returns. This year, the band of seven Big Tech stocks— Alphabet,…
Events in Asian currency markets this week illustrate why, in our view, the US dollar remains king of currencies, even with forecasts for the Fed to start cutting interest rates…
In recent months, we have spoken about the concentration risks associated with the disproportionate weighting of the Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks in the S&P 500 index. This week, a…
Throughout 2023, it was the momentum of the Magnificent 7 that drove US equity market returns, with an equal dollar-weighted return of 107%. The seven Big Tech companies – Alphabet,…
The world we live in would be markedly different without life sciences inventions and discoveries such as vaccines, antibiotics, and the contraceptive pill, to name just a few. The latest…
Ever since passive investing vehicles started to gain traction with their share of the US domestic equity fund market overtaking active funds in or around August 2018 – some fund…
South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana this week presented a Budget that was uninspiring and unremarkable, apart from the announcement of government’s decision to tap into the Gold and Foreign…
Markets briefly fell on Tuesday with the news that consumer prices in the US rose by a higher-than-hoped-for 3.1% for the twelve months to the end of January. But, by…
Following a blockbuster gain of 26% in 2023, the S&P 500 has continued its winning streak in 2024. The index briefly powered to a new record high of 5,000 points…
2024 got off to a bad start for an estimated 82,300 US workers who were laid off when they returned to work after the festive season, according to data from…
Janus, the Roman god that gives January its time, has two faces: One looking back into the old year, one looking forward into the next. Likewise, this is the season…
The 2024 presidential race in the US kicked off in earnest this week, with Donald Trump trouncing his rivals in the Iowa primary. Iowa may be small and only one…
Markets look set to end 2023 on a high note, with the Federal Reserve giving its strongest signal to date that the end of the current interest rate tightening cycle…
India’s stock market topped a total valuation of $4 trillion for the first time on Tuesday this week—on the same day that Moody’s downgraded the outlook for China’s sovereign credit…
Global inflation has been the major theme of the post-COVID-19 years, stoked by supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust consumer spending. Some corporations have been able to bolster…
The presidential election in Argentina and the general election in the Netherlands this week both delivered unexpected results that caution investors to expect a volatile ride next year. In Argentina,…
Howard Marks, the legendary investor, wrote that investment markets swing between euphoria and depression and between celebrating positive developments and obsessing over negatives. We’ve experienced both sides of the pendulum…
The Monkey’s Paw, an early 20th century short story by WW Jacobs about a cursed artefact that grants wishes, warns that getting what you want often comes with a price.…
On the face of it, equity markets have many reasons to celebrate. More than three quarters of Fortune 500 companies that have reported earnings for the September quarter have beaten…
The Big Five in African game animals has remained unchanged since the term was first coined—lion, leopard, rhinoceros, elephant, and African buffalo. By contrast, the big five stocks on the…
With war raging in the Ukraine and conflict in Israel, we appear to be in the midst of a period of elevated geopolitical risk. As the FT points out, the…
The Hamas incursion into Israel last weekend is by far this week’s biggest story in geopolitics, but the event has left markets outside of the Middle East largely unmoved. The…
Governments around the world racked up a record $92 trillion in public debt by the end of 2022, with 3.3 billion people living in countries where interest payments are greater…
Forecasts that economists, equities analysts, central banks, multilateral institutions, and diviners make about markets and economies have a tendency to cloud over in retrospect. Looking back at the predictions of…
Although equity markets have always been subject to equally irrational bouts of exuberance and despair, we appear to be living through especially volatile times. Since the COVID-19 lockdowns, wider participation…
Just two weeks after de-dollarisation was high on the agenda at the BRICS conference in Johannesburg, the mighty American greenback has reminded the world that it remains its preeminent currency.…
Like every economy around the world, China experienced a severe downturn amid the COVID-19 crisis in 2020. Unlike most other big countries, China pursued hard lockdowns well into 2022 and…
Ever since Goldman Sachs coined the BRIC acronym in 2001 (at that time, it excluded South Africa), its members have aspired to shape the club into a counterweight against Western…
There’s irony in the fact that the month of August is named after Augustus, who famously boasted that he found Rome a city of bricks and left it a city…
Company earnings reports for the second quarter (ended 30 June) continued to roll in this week, indicating the US economy is still in sound shape. Eighty percent of the S&P…
Fitch, by far the smallest of the three major credit rating agencies, this week surprised the markets by downgrading US sovereign debt from the highest AAA rating to AA+. The…
Equities this week were mostly indifferent to the widely expected interest rate hikes from the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB). Markets also took heart from the International Monetary Fund…
Following lower-than-anticipated inflation numbers from the US last week, we saw similarly encouraging inflation figures out of the UK, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa this week. UK inflation data…
Market news this week was dominated by a strong rally across global equity markets and a weaker dollar that tumbled on the back of the latest consumer price index (CPI)…
Today marks the halfway mark for 2023 and what a ride it has been for equities so far, despite persistent high inflation; ongoing rate hikes; a protracted war in the…
Markets this week struggled to take clear direction from central banks and economic data. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indices slid on Wednesday as the Fed suggested that more…
South Africa’s ruling party has, in recent weeks, pressed on with three pieces of divisive legislation in the face of increasingly (and unusually) vocal dissent from the business community. These…
Equities have enjoyed a solid start to the month, with Big Tech companies driving the gains. Growing enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the forces powering the surge…
At the outset of this year, we wrote an article about why we’re not bullish about the JSE, despite its outperformance of the global markets in 2022. In line with…
The South African rand has tumbled to new lows against the US dollar and other major currencies this week, with the R20/$ resistance level in clear sight. The rand shed…
In what has become as much of an American tradition as the Superbowl, the White House and Congress are currently wrangling about whether they should allow the US government to…
The rand hasn’t had an easy time in 2023, coming under pressure from record levels of load shedding, the Financial Action Task Force grey-listing, and rising interest rates in the…
Artificial intelligence (AI) isn’t new—the technology sector has been working on it for many years and many of us interact with AI-powered virtual assistants and chatbots like Siri or Alexa…
Listed property, particularly commercial real estate investment trusts (REITS), has not been the same since the start of the pandemic. While some workers have been called back to the office,…
In anticipation that the peak in the rate-hiking cycle should imminently be reached in the US, the S&P 500 continued its positive run this week, with this index now having rebounded…
In the wake of the banking crisis earlier this month, together with continued concerns about a recessionary environment, we’ve again seen investors behaving in ways that run contrary to expectations…
After another week of high drama for the global banking sector, the world seems reasonably safe from a systemic crisis. Swift action from regulators – and even competing banks –…
When we look back at March 2020, financial markets were gripped by Covid- induced panic. The S&P500 Index dropped by a staggering 34% within 5 weeks, registering one of the…
Markets don’t react well to mixed messages and volatility was in play this week amid a range of contradictory signals. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell failed to offer clarity about the…
The world is in a structural state of flux at the moment—from persistent inflation in the rich world and the war in Ukraine, to South Africa’s ongoing power generation crisis.…
Stock markets remained volatile this week with central banks and policymakers navigating the difficult trade-offs between keeping inflation under control and preventing a severe economic downturn. In the US, markets…
Major currencies dropped against the US dollar this week with a red-hot job market, resilient consumer spending and persistent inflation, suggesting that the Fed will continue on its present path…
The State of the Nation Address is an annual fixture on most countries’ political calendars, an event when the head of the state updates citizens, the legislature, and the executive…
What a great start to the year for equity investors! Combined forces such as a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes in the US; a record quantum of share…
Quality-style global equity managers typically deliver a more defensive return profile during periods of sharp market drawdowns. Quality companies are characterised as having low levels of leverage, strong balance sheets…
Equity markets have enjoyed a strong start to the year despite a slight retracement this week, with the S&P 500 peaking last Friday 4.16% up year-to-date, and our preferred global…
It would be satisfying to end the year on a positive note, as was the case last year when the S&P 500 and the FTSE/JSE gained 26.9% and 24.1%, as…
Inflation is the theme that has defined 2022, so the year draws to a close with some welcome news. This week, we saw the first signs that price pressures may…
As the global community seeks to accelerate the move towards cleaner power sources, South Africa’s government is still hooked on coal. This is despite the hundreds of billions of rand…
While the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday that they will be looking to raise rates by 0.5% going forward (as opposed to the last four moves of 0.75%) moved markets very…
Risk and uncertainty continue to characterise 2022, from both geopolitical as well as financial market perspectives. An intra-year low for the S&P 500 was reached on 12 October, while the…
Billions of dollars in crypto holdings have disappeared this year in a series of business collapses. According to Bloomberg News, the combined value market capitalisation of crypto assets has fallen…
Yesterday, it was announced that US inflation had cooled in October by more than forecast, causing US stocks to surge the most since early 2020. On the day, the S&P…
On 29 July 2022 we wrote about the fact that in these paradoxical times, bad news is good news. This theme continued in the last week as the earnings of…
An article forwarded to us this week highlights how living standards in the UK have fallen significantly behind Western Europe and their real wages are not only lower than they…
There have been several jokes lately – perhaps in the last 45 days – welcoming the UK to the Emerging Markets’ club, or even to the Fragile Five. Indeed, with…
We’ve borrowed the title for our News Flash this week from the book of the same name by Dr Dan Ariely, in which he refutes the common assumption that humans…
The answer to this question is addressed eloquently by Karl Leinberger, Chief Investment Officer of Coronation Fund Managers, who explains that “the human brain is hard-wired to survive physical threats,…
Yesterday has been called “Super Thursday,” the day central banks around the world followed in the Fed’s footsteps, hiking rates by anywhere between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. The aftermath…
Global equity markets dropped dramatically on Tuesday, following the release of the US inflation numbers for August. The 12-month inflation number came in at 8.3% (against the median estimate of…
While Europe and the UK face structural challenges and a Russia-induced energy crisis, a recently published report highlighted the stellar performance of US corporates. According to MRB Partners, profits surged…
While last week’s symposium at Jackson Hole was all about inflation, the mood of investors across the world in the aftermath of Powell’s speech, was one of deflation. The stock…
The Economist recently published an article on whether unemployment really has to rise to bring down inflation. Persistently high inflation will remain unresolved as long as rapid growth in wages…
On 13 May, in our Newsflash entitled Searching for the bear market trough, we wrote that a signal for the turning points in bear markets is typically when there is…
On Wednesday, the US released its inflation figure of 8.5% for the 12 months ending July, against the consensus expectation of 8.7%, this being the lowest year-on-year number in recent…
Economists believe that people’s expectations are an important influence in their decisions, whether these be to invest in expanding a business, or to defer or accelerate purchases. Economist John Maynard…
On Wednesday, the US Fed hiked its benchmark rate by 75 basis points for a second consecutive month. This in the face of the June inflation number, which came in…
In recent months, we have often faced questions from clients around the likely duration of the currently depressed equity market conditions and what the prospects for a meaningful market recovery…
One of our preferred global managers (Terry Smith – Fundsmith Equity Fund), wrote in an update this week on how inflation, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely recession have…
The first six months of the year were the stock market’s worst half since 1970, with the S&P 500 having declined by 21% year-to-date. Bonds, which are traditionally seen to…
Our first newsletter for 2022, titled The Year of the Fed, outlined why we felt the US Federal Reserve’s reactions to persistent inflation would be the key determining factor in…
Given this week’s blowout, where the S&P 500 sold off another 6% to the end of Thursday, we’re questioning whether the global markets are already pricing in a worst-case scenario.…
Questions have been raised about the tech sector’s stock market dominance over the past decade and whether this is likely to continue. An article on this subject appeared in a…
Have inflation and earnings forecasts in the US economy peaked? It is these twin peaks, or symbiotic key factors, that are likely to influence market direction over the coming months,…
Seasoned investors have witnessed a range of events that have surprised over the years – pandemics, natural disasters, political upheavals, wars, terrorism, financial crises… and more recently unexpected, decades-high inflation…
While we have already written much about inflation this year, it seems appropriate to continue in this vein as the actions of central banks, and the consequences of market participants…
History shows that turning points in bear markets occur at the points of maximum pessimism where there is almost a vacuum of optimism. Although markets initially reacted well last week,…
The Federal Reserve this week announced a 50 basis points increase in its rate, the first hike of this magnitude in 20 years. This move did not come as a…
We wrote in March about how the war in Ukraine could change everything. In fact, according to Professor Yuval Harari, an Israeli public intellectual and historian, what’s at stake for…
The IMF has revised its global growth outlook for 2022 and 2023 downwards to 3.6% for both years. This is despite inflation risks falling. The question is whether we are…
The “bullwhip effect” was coined in 1997 and refers to a phenomenon within supply chain management whereby shifts in consumer demand cause greatly exaggerated changes further up the supply chain.…
There is no doubt that the onset of the conflict in the Ukraine led to increased inflationary pressures across the globe, arguably setting the scene for a deeper drawdown on…
The Russian invasion of the Ukraine late in February started against a backdrop that was already proving to be a challenge for some regional equity markets, specifically in the US.…
According to John Mearsheimer, a respected international relations scholar in the US, law and morals and ethics matter in the international system, except when they are in direct conflict with…
“The war in Ukraine could change everything.” This is according to a TED talk by Professor Yuval Harari, an Israeli public intellectual and historian. He describes how, besides the regional…
Last weekend, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear forces into a higher state of alert, the first time the Kremlin has done so since the Russian Federation was established in…
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in what some fear will be Europe’s largest battle since World War II, has added volatility to markets which were already impacted by decades-high global inflation…
Just how different this year is proving to investors! Most analysts expected some action on interest rates from the US Federal Reserve in 2022, but perhaps not the five rate…
The book The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki refers to the idea that large groups of people are collectively smarter than individual experts when it comes to problem-solving, decision-making,…
The week was dominated by the mixed fortunes of two of the world’s largest companies, namely Meta, the holding company for Facebook, and Amazon. Facebook parent company Meta has produced…
The week kicked off with a manic Monday on Wall Street, followed by another selloff on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 now trades at 25 times forward earnings, down from 30…
Equity market corrections are certainly not unusual and are both more frequent and less severe than market crashes. The Nirvana, of course, is when markets move up steadily, such as…
Early last year, we published a news edition entitled “The year of the vaccine”. Our thesis was that the success (or not) of the vaccine rollouts would determine the timing…
Last week’s introduction to our news flash concluded that “the Omicron variant does not warrant a change in our view that the global economy is on a road – albeit…
Our header may appear presumptuous, but this week the Omicron fear factor that gripped financial markets last Thursday and Friday, appeared to have reversed as we initially witnessed rebounds in…
Local investors can be forgiven for thinking the reason for accelerated rand weakness in November is primarily related to SA-specific factors. However, until yesterday, the major influencer driving even developed…
The S&P 500 Index continues to set records despite known risks, such as growth slowdowns, supply chain issues, geo-political tensions between the US and China, rate hike probabilities, and persistent…
As the COP26 conference winds down, it has seen some interesting wins for countries in the developed markets, and saw the US and China put aside their differences long enough…
The current debate dominating the markets, and being discussed by market watchers, is the relationship between liquidity and growth. The question being asked is what markets would look like without…
By October month-end last year, global markets were facing massive risks to sustained recovery prospects. The looming US election was turning ugly, while there were still major concerns over the…
The primary economic talking point for the financial markets this week is whether global inflationary pressures will prove transitory or persistent and how central banks will respond. This has been…
During hard lockdowns implemented to curb the spread of the coronavirus, supply of some key items was severely restricted. Well after initial panic buying caused a shortage of essential household…
The volatile trading during much of September has continued into October, with markets seemingly unable to pick a particular direction. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 alternated between gains and…
Debt woes at Chinese property developer, Evergrande, sent markets into a spin earlier this week, with investors questioning whether the company would default on $119 million in interest payments due…
With inflation worries on the horizon internationally and locally, many are concerned that this could adversely affect economic growth and corporate earnings, which have just started to recover from the…
The rand was surprisingly strong this week, gaining 2.3% against the dollar. What is unusual is that it achieved this in the midst of a stronger dollar and slightly softer…
International markets seem set on strong growth, with the S&P 500 closing several days at new highs. The S&P hit its 50th all-time high on 24 August 2021, placing it…
Covid-19 has catalysed an innovation culture with many new software applications, security solutions, devices, and ways of working coming out of people’s need to hunker down at home while carrying…
South Africa’s Department of Social Security raised eyebrows this week by proposing a comprehensive overhaul of the social security system that could significantly increase the tax burden for most taxpayers.…
The market is closely watching US inflation, which was in line with July expectations after dramatically exceeding them in June. For much of the year, investors have been concerned that…
This week’s edition focuses on the global airline industry, as its operational status serves as a primary indicator of whether the global economy is truly open, or not. On the…
Chinese tech giants lost hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalisation early this week as the government widened its crackdown on the sector – a move that has unnerved…
An article in the New York Times this week asks whether the US economy is running too hot or too cold as it reboots in the wake of Covid-19. Although…
As predicted at the beginning of July, former President Jacob Zuma’s incarceration has unleashed waves of violence that have contributed to government uncertainty and policy volatility. It is no exaggeration…
The biggest news of the week for our South African clients was undoubtedly the fact that the country’s former President, Jacob Zuma, handed himself over to police to begin his…
Powered by consumers with extra savings, businesses eager to hire and enormous policy support, the United States’ current economic recovery is billed as being “unlike any in recent history”. According…
According to new research from Bloomberg Economics, a housing bubble is starting to form in many countries worldwide as they ease themselves out of the Covid-19 crisis. The research indicates…
In recent News Flash editions, we have written about the “K-shaped” economic recovery, while today we focus on the sustainability thereof, as well as how governments intend using taxes as…
Following the worldwide loss of 255 million full-time jobs in 2020 — four times more than during the global financial crisis — the International Labour Organization (ILO) warns that we…
Amazon this week announced plans to acquire MGM in a transaction worth $8.45 billion – a deal that encapsulates some of the biggest trends of our time, including the convergence…
The International Energy Agency has signalled that for the world to limit global warming and get to net zero emissions by 2050, all new fossil fuel investments – oil, coal…
Despite growing worries about post-pandemic inflation and the danger of a bubble, stock markets appear impervious to warnings from the sceptics. Where it was the technology and home entertainment sectors…
During the 1980s, the US lived through Reaganomics, an economic philosophy rooted in a steadfast belief in deregulation, lower taxes on businesses and the wealthy, and less federal government spending.…
One of the questions policymakers and analysts are beginning to grapple with post-pandemic is the potential impact of Covid on birth rates in a world where many rich countries are…
In August 2020, we postulated as to whether the recovery of the world economy would take the shape of a V- or a U- or an L. What we are…
The world economy is showing surprising resilience in the wake of the pandemic, boosted by fiscal stimulus and low interest rates. Several large economies have reported higher than expected GDP…
US President Biden has set out the first part of a grand infrastructure and jobs proposal, which will see $2 trillion ploughed into America’s infrastructure and its shift to greener…
Generous central bank and government stimulus programmes have helped to keep the world economy and equity markets afloat since the start of the pandemic. As vaccination drives accelerate across the…
Fund managers around the world are scrutinising human rights and environmental concerns in their investment decisions. BlackRock—which last year committed to selling stakes in fossil fuel companies—has signalled that it…
Australian virologist and Nobel prize winner Sir Frank Macfarlane Burnet declared in 1962 that one of the most important revolutions in history was the “virtual elimination of social diseases”. After…
Economists and analysts have, from early in 2021, signalled the danger that stock markets may face a ‘taper tantrum’ this year – in other words, a surge in US treasury…
Despite steep losses in US stocks on Wednesday and Thursday, much of the narrative this week focused on how the world economy will move beyond the pandemic into recovery. With…
Bitcoin again captured news headlines as the cryptocurrency surpassed the $54 000 level on Friday. The currency has moved more mainstream with companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy having recently…
This week’s News Flash does not include much on current affairs, focusing instead on the highly topical and contentious subject of taxing wealthy individuals. As we show in our headline…
Whilst 2020 will undoubtedly go down in history as the year of the Covid-19 pandemic, we suggest that 2021 will be the year of the vaccine. This week’s news covers…
“Trilemma” is a term in decision-making theory. Unlike a dilemma, which has two solutions, a trilemma offers three equal solutions to a complex problem. However, the options of a trilemma…
The polarisation of Americans by an autocratic leadership and a lack of bipartisan politics will be one of the most unfortunate, enduring legacies of the Trump presidency. Newly elected President…
Last week we published our newsletter for the final quarter of 2020. In this first weekly version for 2021, we look at some of the ironic parallels between US politics…
As we approach the end of a tumultuous year, there is a major disconnect between portfolio growth and the lasting hardship that has been inflicted on the global economy and…
This week was characterised by a slew of legal and regulatory actions against a few of the globe’s largest media and digital platforms, namely Facebook and Google. This is on…
By late October, there was ample evidence that the global Covid infection rate was spinning out of control. Equity markets were weaker, down a second consecutive month, while the upcoming…
This year has been characterised by immense duality: The record velocity at which markets declined and then recovered; despair and hope; growing income disparity; stimulus on/stimulus off; and investor sentiment…
In our July article entitled “Equity Market Direction – Will it be the ‘P’ or the ‘E’?” we wrote about the well-known fact that corporate earnings (E) are a very…
In his song, Thuma Mina, late South African jazz musician Hugh Masekela anticipated a day of renewal, of new beginnings. The translation of Thuma Mina – “send me” – was…
At the time of writing, it still remains to be seen as to who will win the United States election. In the midst of the process, the temperature of the nation…
While second waves of the Covid-19 virus are causing a major upheaval in some key developed markets this week, the biggest news item and risk to global stability is still…
In last week’s News Flash entitled ‘‘Money doesn’t grow on trees’’, we highlighted that the most substantial and enduring impact of Covid-19 will be the dramatically increased level of debt on…
Perhaps the most substantial and most enduring impact of Covid-19 will be the dramatically increased levels of debt on almost all global government balance sheets. The economic impact of the…
As the globe continues to grapple with Covid-19 and its societal and economic impacts, it is noteworthy how some positive themes are emerging: Increased pressure is being brought to bear…
South Africa has one of the highest measures of income and wealth inequality in the world. But we are not alone. The benefits of economic growth in many major developed…
While 2020 has been a year unlike any other and we certainly hope that we are through the worst of it – the infection rates, the lockdowns, the economic impact,…
This week’s theme focuses on success and regress over the past week within corporate and country specific contexts. Ironically, we feature the Tesla share price as a loser, although we…
This week’s global news focuses on a somewhat positive aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic – the acceleration in adapting and developing technologies that can minimise the impact on the environment:…
Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and Tesla are notable beneficiaries of the accelerating trend towards a digitalized economy. This week it was announced that the world’s richest man is now also the…
As at the time of writing, the S&P 500 is headed to its fourth-straight weekly advance, with technology companies amongst the leaders in the benchmark’s gains. It is common knowledge…
Since the lows on 23 March 2020, the S&P500 has bounced by just over 50%. This has largely been driven by technology heavyweights, such as Apple (up 102%), Amazon (up…
Since the heavy crash and subsequent rally in global equity markets in the first half of this year, many investment market participants have been asking about the extent and timing…
A question we continue to pose to ourselves is – will it be the ‘P’ or the ‘E’? This vexing subject was debated in our opinion piece dated 3 July under the…
This week bore witness to various political leaders pursuing personal and party agendas above all else, risking the prosperity of their own countries in the process. From the closure of…
In a similar pattern to that of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it appears to be Main Street (small businesses, the middle class, and the general economy), and not Wall…
This week saw global equity markets rise once again, in defiance of worsening economic fundamentals and forward earnings forecasts, primarily caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. To explain this paradox, we…
This week Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, announced that the decline in GDP for 2020 would be worse than forecast a few months ago, and that the Fund has…
“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” – Benjamin Graham, a British-born American economist, professor, and investor Benjamin Graham’s statement was made…
“The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.” – John Maynard Keynes, a British economist These words especially resonate with us today…
When the going gets tough, the tough get going: World leadership has been under a magnifying glass since the offset of Covid-19. Some leaders have excelled, such as Prime Minister…
As we approach the end of May, the S&P Index looks set to post a gain of 4% for the month, with various stock market indices across the globe in…
Once again, markets this week were ignited by optimism that a potential vaccine to the coronavirus may have been discovered. Each time there is a glimmer of potential for Covid-19…
This week was marred with those once in favour, falling out of favour. There has been public tension between President Trump and Dr Fauci, with Trump previously tweeting about firing…
The economic distress in the US came into greater focus today with the announcement by the Labour Department that more than 20.5 million jobs were shed in April. This prompted…
This week was once again positive for equity markets with returns for April now at staggering levels as quantified below. This has been caused by massive central bank stimulus programs…
The World Health Organisation has specifically praised South Africa for its ‘incredible’ response to Covid-19. Meanwhile, the global community is in shock over how badly the US is handling the outbreak, with a…
The world has become connected – yet at the same time isolated – as a third of the global population still suffers varying degrees of restrictions placed on their movements.…
Crises bring perspective and positive reflection with them. For instance, President Ramaphosa has been globally recognised with how he has handled the Covid-19 crisis and has continued to display strong and…
The world is slowing down, with a third of the globe having some sort of restriction placed on their freedom of movement. It is the first day of 21 days…
What we know today is that even though the Coronavirus pandemic continues to spread across the world, with certain emerging market populations being particularly vulnerable, there is evidence that regional…
It has been an eventful week to say the least, with Covid-19 was officially named a pandemic. Although taking precautions should be encouraged, panicking and making rash decisions should not. There is potential…
Covid-19 concerns continue and the impact that it is having on global economies is coming to the fore. At the moment the most heavily impacted industries are supply chains, travel…
The fear from investors that COVID-19 will have an impact on global supply chains and in turn, corporate profitability, has resulted in a stampede towards safe-haven assets. This has resulted in markets…
Moody’s has reduced South Africa’s growth forecast for 2020 to below one percent. This in itself does not bode well for the possibility of a downgrade by Moody’s at the…
Yesterday President Ramaphosa gave his State of the Nation Address (SONA) which received mixed reactions. It wasn’t that President Ramaphosa let us down on his orating skills, or in his…
The Senate voted to acquit President Trump to his great glee and to the Democrats’ disdain. The process is not over, and the Democrats are already talking of different avenues…
This week has brought eventful news: the UK is leaving the EU; Trump may be acquitted today; and the Coronavirus has been classified as a global health emergency. Locally, the…
After four years of Brexit uncertainty, Prime Minister Johnson’s majority in parliament has allowed him to pass his Brexit deal! There are still hurdles before it is finalised, but the…
Please find below an article from Kevin Lings, Chief Economist, STANLIB: In 2019 the Rand strengthened by 2.8% against the US Dollar, after depreciating by -13.9% in 2018. In 2017…
What an eventful week: The impeachment trial has begun, Russia’s government resigned, and Australia received some desperately needed rain. Locally, there have been many shifts too – the SARB lowered…
Welcome to our last News Flash of 2019. We wish you peace and joy as the year draws to a close and may your journey into the new decade continue…
SAA has finally gone into business rescue. What this means for the long-term prospects of the business is still unknown, but a business rescue practitioner will be appointed immediately. This…
Over the past few weeks there have been many developments regarding the health of South Africa’s economy, centering around whether there will be a downgrade to junk status in March…
A mosaic or tapestry of news was in store for us this week. Many different stories evolved as we made our trudge towards the end of 2019. In South Africa,…
Globally, there continues to be much disruption: China is battling to maintain growth in the face of the Trade War; Germany has been flirting with recession for years now; Hong Kong…
The three big stories of the week have been that: China and the US seem to be on their way to the first phase of trade agreements to mitigate the…
This week Finance Minister Tito Mboweni gave his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) and painted a gloomy picture. Debt has ballooned, and the country is no better off, unemployment is…
The step change in the Government fiscal numbers depicted in the Budget in Feb 2019 compared with those released in the MTBPS in Oct 2019 – only 6 months later…
So much has happened this week — maybe it is the last surge of fervour before the lull of the end of the year: the DA has had a week…
Even though load-shedding unexpectedly reared its head again this week, there have been many positive cogs turning South Africa’s future and eradicating the rot of state corruption. Even though it…
After a gloomy midweek, global markets have recovered slightly, despite the multiple adversaries, the biggest of which is the ongoing trade war. The soap opera of current politics continues to grasp attention from…
This week has been a big news week, with our two top newsmakers President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson in seriously hot water. A complaint was filed over…
It is not all trade wars and Brexit news this week, only partly. Of course, sadly, that does not mean that it is all good news. There was a drone…
This week was all about politicians and their impact on society, from Prime Minister Boris Johnson wanting a no-deal Brexit to President Donald Trump flexing his negotiation muscles. Then to…
Cape Town hosted the World Economic Forum on Africa this week. It was an opportunity for President Cyril Ramaphosa to show that South Africa is still an economic leader in…
There seems to be a measure of closure on the horizon to events that have occupied the news for the past two years and more – the Brexit deadline is…
President Donald Trump had a busy week of tweets and announcements. He cancelled a meeting with the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, because she said that he couldn’t buy…
It has been a mixed and volatile week. US stocks suffered one of their biggest single-day fall-offs this year in the middle of the week; there has been a lot of…
This week, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson put the “boy” in “boisterous”. Both Leaders came out guns blazing with President Trump calling out the Chinese saying that…
Several months ago, we wrote about Dynasty’s concerns surrounding Eskom, referring to it as the “the elephant in the room.” These views have come further to fruition as Eskom’s gargantuan…
Much of what has happened this week emulates the state of politics and government at this time. Meetings about meetings, bureaucracy and gridlock − the trade war between the US…
A good news week! Many interesting and exciting things happened this week that could be small indicators for what the future holds. Christine Lagarde is set to replace Mario Draghi…
The G-20 Summit is underway. Although there has been a lot of commotion around the summit, it has not been about the summit itself but rather about President Trump, his…
President Ramaphosa gave an eloquent and inspirational State of the Nation Address ( SONA ) last night and although it is difficult not to feel proud of having a President…
Putting all the processes aside, it does look as though Boris Johnson is going to become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. At least we are in for better speeches…
It seems as though Ramaphosa winning the Presidency was a battle, and the war has only just begun. This week provided the South African populous an insight into how divided…
We are in for an exciting week! On Sunday or Monday President Ramaphosa will announce his newly appointment Cabinet. The decisions made here will be a signal of his power…
This week, trade war negotiations between America and China boiled over. Trump tipped over the pot, exiting negotiations and increasing tariffs. China has since retaliated. Theresa May has been asked…
We await the final results of the General Election without bated breath. It seems that our predictions are going to be fairly spot on with little fluctuation in the polling numbers throughout…
Brexit and the US-Sino trade war are in the news again this week, but we are more focused on our own General Elections taking place in just under a week…
In South Africa, the campaigning to the lead up to the general election on the 8th of May is getting heated. There is concern over the election results as it is unclear whether the…
Inline with the spirit of Passover and Easter celebrations we are sending out the News Flash today rather than on Friday. This week was eventful both locally and internationally: Moody’s…
Local electioneering will continue to dominate the news cycle as the campaigning heats up ahead of next month’s elections. Expect to see increased service-delivery protests and the concomitant finger-pointing we…
Moody ’s will be releasing a report on whether or not they have decided to downgrade South Africa’s credit rating later today. There is concern over the possibility of a downgrade…
Due to tomorrow being Human Rights Day and it creating an unofficial long weekend, there will not be a News Flash on Friday, 22 March 2019, but we will be…
This week, the British Parliament voted against a ‘no-deal Brexit ’, American and Chinese leaders continue to quarrel over trade deal negotiations, the US Senate voted against Trump’s wall as…
wThis week there were further developments in Trump Land regarding Paul Manafort, the trade war, and the denuclearisation of North Korea. It seems as though Eskom was riddled with corruption…
This week was a busy one for the Trump administration – President Trump had a summit with North Korea, heard Michael Cohen’s testimony against the President, and had to deal…
Tito Mboweni delivered his budget speech this week, presenting a bleak but frank assessment of what South Africa will have to do to fix our economy. As South African eyes…
We will get to a day where we do not talk about Brexit, the trade war, or Eskom woes but today is not that day. Theresa May’s appeal has been…
It has been a busy week as President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union Address and President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his State of the Nation Address. The impact of…
January has come to an end and bought relief to investors as most of the loses of December were regained. The MSCI All-Country World Index recorded its best monthly performance…
This week has been filled with the inspiring insight of world leaders and forward thinkers in Davos, along with the uninspiring continued drudge of the US government shutdown (now on…
The Government Shutdown in America is now the longest ever recorded. Theresa May is under pressure to coordinate a Brexit deal. Macron is trying to resolve the “yellow vests” protests.…
Dynasty would like to wish you a happy festive season. This will be our last News Flash of 2018 and we will start up again on the 11 January 2019…
It has been a very volatile week but there are a few things that may encourage us to look at on the bright side. Trump and Xi Jinping are in negotiations to conclude…
There is a possible culmination to the trade war this weekend as Trump and Xi Jinping, the President of China, are set to meet alongside the G20 summit in Buenos…
Ramaphosa’s Cabinet reshuffle, as anticipated by Dynasty, lacked substance – Bathabile Dlamini and Nomvula Mokyane still have their jobs, and the Cabinet continues to be bloated with redundant, corrupt ministers and deputies.
It seems as though an end to the Brexit conundrum maybe in sight. Although this has come with a fair amount of feather ruffling this week, it is only the…
This week saw the results of the much anticipated midterm elections. The Democrats took the House and the Republicans maintained control of the Senate. This could initiate a lot of friction within…
With the end of the year fast approaching, a lot has been happening in politics. Angela Merkel announced that she would not be running for re-election of the Christian Democratic…
Fears of rising US interest rates and the impact of the Trade War have caused the markets to retreat heavily this month. The global market sell-off that started in late…
The most critical story for South African’s this week was the appointment of Tito Mboweni as the new Finance Minister after Nhlanhla Nene stepped down. This will make him the…
Some Friday inspiration: This week the Daily Maverick published an article called #GuptaLeaks: From cloak and dagger handovers to the Zondo Commission – a hard drive’s journey like no other written…
The week was one of mixed news and some non-starters. After a lot of trade war rhetoric, the international market reacted in a relatively docile manner; there have still been no…
There have been a few revelations in the Zondo Commission this week. The Gupta’s have been denied their request to testify by video-link and will be forced to return to…
The rand lost 12.5% in a week, and the GDP number was expected to be +0.6 and came out at -0.7% in the midst of an Emerging Market sell-off. South…
With the possibility of a no Brexit deal becoming ever more realistic Theresa May has made her way to Africa, visiting Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. This has revealed a…
Despite the positive news for South Africa on the political front with Shaun “the Sheep” Abrahams being asked to leave as head of the NPA, this week was a bitter pill…
This week has been momentous for our small part of the southern hemisphere. Cyril Ramaphosa announced, in the middle of the night, that the ANC will be making changes to…
This past week saw bureaucracy at its best. From the BRICS summit in South Africa to the EU and America deciding to leave their trade relationship essentially the same. Theresa…
Almost every day this week Trump has flip-flopped on what he said the day before. The US has been shocked by the performance of their president at a summit between…
In just a couple of days Trump has criticised Angela Merkel, Theresa May, and NATO as a whole and showed his affiliation towards Russia and Putin in particular. He did…
There is heightened concern around the world this week, again, regarding a global trade war and the potential impact it could have on economic growth. The net effect of Trump’s…
The biggest news story from this week has been Trump’s flip-flop on his “zero tolerance” policy regarding children being separated from their parents at the US border and then having…
Internationally this was a momentous week. Donald Trump removed America’s support from the G-7 Summit Statement, creating tension with some of America’s most powerful allies. Trump also met with Kim…
This week left most South African’s shocked as the GDP results for the first quarter of this year shrank unexpectedly by 2.2%. This was due to a multitude of factors,…
Michael Power, a strategist at Investec, has written an interesting piece on what he considers to be the Fourth Industrial Revolution to be (it is not AI). He says that…
It is interesting to see the international political environment unfold. The US has gone from a country that was the leader of international diplomacy and has turned towards isolationism and…
It is a condition of our time that the US dominates the international news. It seems that other countries only make the news in terms of their relationship with the…
It could be perceived that Trump is aiming to bring America to war. A few months ago, during the nuclear to and fro between America and North Korea (or rather…
The news this week was a melting pot of world events. The Fed maintained rates; Trump is in more trouble, facing Robert Mueller and Stormy Daniels; Theresa May continues to…
This past week saw the potential for peace after a 67-year war; a launched satellite to find extraterritorial life; President Ramaphosa announced an investment task team; and racism was called…
If Donald Trump completes his two terms as president, what will the political landscape look like in 7 years? In his first year alone he has caused loud, clumsy chaos,…
A potential trade war was initiated between the two largest economies in the world. Donald Trump introduced $50billion of trade tariffs against China. So far China has retaliated with a…
Since Trump has come into the presidency, the news seems to be constantly US-centric. Although this is frustrating it seems to be a condition of our times. Week to week…
As a South African, there is an awareness of the overwhelming task to establish economic stability but the thought is becoming possible again. It is satisfying to see the cogs start to turn after…
This week, Ivor Sarakinsky (PhD) has written a contributing piece for our readers analysing Ramaphosa’s Cabinet reshuffle. There have been many other developments this week – Trump has suggested some…
We are in a time where so much is happening – reading through information on the SONA seems outdated, but it was only last week Friday that it was presented!…
President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his first SONA speech on Friday. There is still a lot being finalised – the Gupta’s are on the run, Zuma’s future is uncertain, but, Ramaphosa…
South Africa has been in a state of suspense for the week. Ramaphosa has been in negotiations with Zuma regarding Zuma’s departure but whether or not this will happen is…
The Trump administration is threatening to release a memo implicating the FBI. It seems like a short-sighted move on the part of the presidency but looks like it will go…
There has been a lot of positivity surrounding South Africa’s future lately. Cyril Ramaphosa is wooing the world with his charm, realism, and charisma in Davos. Aspects including Goldman Sachs commenting that SA…
South Africans are one of the most politically aware populations in the world, and it is no wonder. From a possible presidential recall (it would be the second one in…
A satellite launched from SpaceX disappeared, cryptocurrencies remain volatile, and South Africa’s politics is consistent in the dramatic. Keep reading for more of what has been happening over the past few weeks.
This will be our last News Flash for 2017, which we will commence again on 12 January 2018. We hope that you have enjoyed this weekly addition to your correspondence…
This News Flash casts a spotlight on private sector practices in South Africa – from MultiChoice, to Naspers, to SAP, to Steinhoff – we are well aware of the prevalence of corruption in our state institutions, but our private…
The South African Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU) reacted angrily to the rating agency’s decision to downgrade on Friday 24 November stating, “It is outrageous that these unelected enforcers of the…
The last two weeks have been quite a roller-coaster for Southern Africa. We saw the non-coup/coup in Zimbabwe rise and succeed in peacefully removing Robert Mugabe, South Africa lost their…
There is much confusion over the current state of Zimbabwe, South African journalists are being held at the border, and the information that is coming out of the country is…
The Paradise Papers have exposed royalty, politicians and rock stars alike. After two of Trump’s ex-aides were implicated in the Russia probe, the Paradise Papers have shown further links between Club…
Last week Friday, 27 October 2017, American tech had an incredible day with the Nasdaq Top 100 companies adding $200 billion in market cap. Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet Inc. were…
The mid-term budget speech was met with widespread disappointment. The numbers were worse than expected, economic growth forecasts decreased, the consolidated budget deficit widened, the nuclear deal was not addressed,…
In South Africa, the last few days have caused a stir! Jacob Zuma reshuffled his cabinet, international corruption fighters have gotten involved in the Gupta case, and Dudu Myeni has…
Internationally, there have been Brexit ball games and the ambiguous possibility of Catalonian independence. Locally, there are concerns over Gigaba’s interim budget allocations to State Owned Enterprises. We also outline…
Fresh debate about gun control in America after a horrific mass shooting in Las Vegas. In South Africa, the countdown continues to the ANC’s elective conference in December. Read on…
Over the last week, the bizarreness of Trump continued, from tax cuts for the rich to embarrassment at the UN General Assembly; Angela Merkel has kept her position as Chancellor…
London terror attacks and tensions around North Korea spell another week of international turbulence. Gupta scandals put South Africa in the international headlines for the wrong reasons. Read on for…
South Africans were cheered by the country’s emergence from a technical recession and a victory against Bell Pottinger, while Hurricane Irma and tensions between the US and North Korea dominated…
This week, Hurricane Harvey caused chaos in Texas and South Africa’s ALSI Index reached new highs despite the strength of the rand. For more economic news, continue reading.
US President Donald Trump bemused and annoyed the world at large again this week by saying white supremacists and left-wing counter protesters were equally to blame for the violence in…
President Jacob Zuma remains in office after surviving the motion of no confidence vote last week. The US and North Korea had a bizarre to and fro of nuclear threats…
White House Communications officer, Anthony Scaramucci, was last week removed from his job after just 10 days – he is one of 10 people who have resigned or been fired…
This week, the IMF released new international growth forecasts, the Republicans tried yet again to repeal Obamacare, and the South African Reserve Bank cut the repo rate by 25 basis…
Trump dramatics and Brexit negotiations dominated international headlines; in South Africa, the Public Protector’s recommendation that the government changes the Reserve Bank’s constitutional mandate continued to make waves.
A week of turmoil in South Africa, the Public Protector recommended that the government changes the South African Reserve Bank’s constitutional mandate. Markets tumbled and the rand lost +-1.6% against…
Qatar’s neighbours commissioned sanctions against the country, Comey stood up to US President Donald Trump, and Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s credit rating a notch – it’s been another busy week…
This has been a week of shocking events: terrorist attacks in London, US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Change Accord, and an email leak…
South Africa was rocked this week by leaked emails providing further evidence of the Gupta family’s influence over President Jacob Zuma and his family, key cabinet ministers and the boards…
The deadliest terrorist attack in the UK since the 2005 London bombings took place yesterday at an Ariana Grande concert – 22 people have died and 59 have been reported…
Markets this week are dominated by the scandals currently rocking US President Donald Trump —including the firing of FBI Director Comey and allegations that he leaked highly classified information to…
The rand has held up well in recent months, despite political volatility and the downgrade of South Africa’s sovereign credit rating by two rating agencies. This has prompted new finance…
S&P and Fitch downgraded South Africa’s credit rating this week to ‘junk status’, both citing President Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle for their unscheduled decision. The rand is now the world’s worst…
We said that last week was politically charged; this week was even more so. On Thursday, President Zuma reshuffled his cabinet without consulting the ANC’s Top 6, in turn causing…
This week has been politically vibrant. From Trump stepping away from his proposed health care plan sighting, “Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated” opting to move onto tax…
The biggest issues of the last week were the fact that precious metals got sold off due to dollar strength and the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday – where there…
Global News: The MSCI World Index has gained 0.4%, over the past week, while the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index fell by 1%. Since December 2016, the EM Index has…
Global News: In 2017, the MSCI World Index has gained 5.4% in dollar terms while the MSCI Emerging Market Index has returned 9.5%, also in dollar terms. The JSE ALSI…
Global News: In 2017, the MSCI World Index is up 4.8% in dollar terms. The MSCI Emerging Market Index has gained 8.9% in dollar terms – this is its highest…
Global News: The global developed market MSCI World Index, has returned to its previous all-time high from May 2015. So far in 2017 the index has returned 3%, in US dollar…
Global News: In the US, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the President on, Friday, 20 January 2017. In China, import growth gained 3.1% year-on-year indicating healthy Chinese consumption, but…
Global News: In the US, share prices are at new highs – promoted by the strengthening economy, consumer confidence, anticipated profits and reduced taxes. US factory orders saw an increase…
Global News: The MSCI World Index is just -1.3% from its record high, in dollar terms. It is 19.3% up from its low on 11 February 2016. In the US,…
Global News: We have seen Mexico’s currency fall sharply since Trump was elected. The euro itself is trading near its lowest level versus the dollar in 13.5 years at $1.063…
Global News: In the US, it was thought that the markets would stumble in the event of a Trump victory. In actuality, they have performed relatively well. The stock markets…
Just when we thought it was safe to confirm that things had settled into a “new normal”, it seems perhaps they had not, the “old normal” is back and, to…
The third quarter of 2025, ending 30 September, has seen gains for most equity indices around the world. The continued momentum behind artificial intelligence (AI) and the materialisation of a…
The second three months of 2025 were action-packed, shaped by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff moves and a volatile geopolitical environment. The pace of events was dizzying, but investors…
The first quarter of 2025 has not been kind to investors. Indeed, we have just come through the worst quarter and month (March) for US equities since the start of…
With wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as elections in countries homing around four billion people, 2024 was always expected to be turbulent. With this in…
It has certainly been an action-packed quarter for the markets, spanning a correction for tech stocks at the end of July and into the flash crash in early August, and…
Investors have reason to be pleased with the market performance in the second quarter of 2024, with even a delay in the start of the Fed’s interest rate loosening cycle…
Following the barnstorming performance of global equities markets in 2023, the bull run continued throughout the first quarter of this year. Investors have embraced global returns, with the S&P 500…
In our first newsletter of 2023, we set out our expectation for “markets to grind higher during 2023 and recover a meaningful portion of 2022’s losses”. This forecast turned out to…
After a positive first and second quarter which saw the S&P500 gain nearly 17%, the third quarter of 2023 reflects markets that are pricing in a different version of reality. The…
Building on their continued strong recovery in the first quarter of 2023, global equities maintained their momentum in the second quarter. The MSCI World Index climbed 7%, the S&P 500…
With higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy dampening confidence throughout 2022, major indices ended a turbulent year in negative territory, despite the fact that markets bounced back strongly in…
At the onset of 2022, our first Weekly News Flash was entitled “The year of the Fed”. Even though we could not have anticipated events such as the war in…
The quarter to end September has been a rollercoaster ride in a turbulent year. We saw markets ending at new lows for 2022, with the S&P 500 down 23.9% year-to-date,…
Markets have just recorded their worst quarter since the early days of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, with the reality of persistently high inflation continuing to dictate direction. The MSCI…
In one of our first communications in January, we indicated that inflation would be the big story of 2022. Even before war broke out in Ukraine, there were indications that…
As we enter a new year, it is an opportune time to reflect on the performance of the markets in 2021 and cast our eyes to the future. Looking back…
Global markets were volatile for much of September – and the last week of the month in particular. The instability was enough to erase the strong gains made in the…
Despite patches of volatility in the global markets, we have ended the second quarter on a high note for global equities. Yet there is a sense that we are reaching…
Despite a bit of a rollercoaster ride for big tech shares in the first quarter of 2021, the global equity markets were robust during the quarter ended 31 March 2021.…
As we enter 2021, it is worth reflecting on our expectations at the beginning of 2020 when facemasks, social distancing, and national lockdowns were not yet a part of our…
As we survey the markets for the third quarter of 2020, we need to look past the September pull-back to recall that July and August were both exceptionally strong months.…
Global markets are showing few signs of settling down, with sentiment vacillating between hopes for a sharp ‘V-shaped’ global recovery and continued concern about the economic impact of the novel…
It would be an understatement to say that the first quarter of 2020 has been a wild ride. The US’s three major stock indices — the Dow, the S&P 500…
We continue to live in risky times, but as we noted in our final newsletter for 2019, the markets last year outperformed expectations and delivered solid returns for investors. Looking…
As we enter the home stretch of 2019, many of the same themes that have dominated headlines for the past three years continue to dictate the direction of the markets.…
We’re halfway through the year, and there are few signs that the geopolitical volatility that has characterised the past three years will abate any time soon. The same headlines continue…
Welcome to our update for the first quarter of 2019, which reflects a healthy recovery in local and offshore equity markets, following the downturn in the last quarter of 2018. The…
Let’s look back at 2018, before considering why 2019 may well be a better year. Global equities ended 2018 down, with South Africa’s JSE experiencing an especially tough year. The…
As we move into the last quarter of 2018, we are comfortable that the latest developments in global financial markets validate our investment approach. Though there has been some turbulence in…
In our newsletter for the first quarter of the year, we commented on renewed optimism in the South African markets as we basked in the glow of Ramaphoria. But the…
What a difference three months can make! In our previous quarterly newsletter, we discussed the underperformance of the South African stock market relative to its global peers, as well as…
The global economy is firing on all cylinders. Though 2016 and 2017 have been politically tumultuous, growth remains robust and international investors are still showing an appetite for risk. Investors…
Markets have remained resilient during the first few months of 2017, especially compared to the turbulence that 2016 brought with the shock election of Donald Trump as president of the…
In January 2016 South Africa was in the grips of a terrible drought with “no sign of abating”, and the South African Weather Service had just declared 2015 the driest…
Gold has been on a tear in 2025, surging 50% in value and setting more than 30 nominal records for the year to date. During September alone, gold racked up…
Many people conflate ETFs (exchange-traded funds) with ‘passive’ management and unit trusts or mutual funds (Funds) with ‘active’ management. This is a fallacy. In reality, there are both actively managed…
At Dynasty, we’ve traditionally had a strong bias towards ‘quality’ in our clients’ global equity portfolios. In brief, the quality investment style favours stocks with strong balance sheets, stable earnings,…
The US dollar has had its worst half-year in five decades, reflecting its most pronounced first-half decline in value since 1973, when President Richard Nixon was in office. The currency…
The JSE delivered remarkable returns for the first half of 2025, outperforming most stock markets in other developed and developing markets alike. The All Share Index (ALSI) was up 16.7%…
It has been just over a year since South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) was formed. The following research piece, penned on 3 July by Louw Nel and Jee-A…
“The only way this problem can be cured is with Tariffs, which are now bringing tens of billions of dollars into the USA. They are already in effect, and a…
After powering equities markets to new heights in 2023 and 2024, the Magnificent Seven club of stocks has tumbled down to earth in the first quarter of 2025. These stocks…
For many years now, we have had a strong bias towards the Quality style of investing within our clients’ portfolios and our house-view funds. Traditional quality fund managers will pick…
To say that the Trump administration’s varied and often controversial executive orders and policy changes have kept market participants on edge is an understatement. Philip Saunders, director of the Ninety…
Within a few days from now, Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as the 47th president of the US. His return to the White House is, as we have…
At the outset of 2024, some of the more optimistic banks and analysts forecast that there was scope for the rand to power to R16/$ by the end of the…
For many years, trusts in general were not subject to punitive tax and regulatory scrutiny, which made them the most tax-efficient vehicle for high-net-worth families to preserve wealth and pass…
The USDZAR exchange rate has been a very informative instrument through which to view major political events that have unfolded in our country over the last 20 years. Knowledge of…
The third quarter of 2024 might have been good for equities, but it was less so for the US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) dropped around 4.8% against a…
With global equity markets at record highs, advisors and investors can be justifiably concerned as to the timing of committing large sums of money to this asset class. In this…
The following article was commissioned by Dynasty for our clients and compiled by our research partner, Analytics Consulting, as represented on our Investment Committee. Since South Africa went to the…
As we enter the second half of the year, the world’s attention is turning to the blockbuster event of the political calendar: the US presidential election in November. Judging from…
A question that clients often ask us is how much of a risk the high levels of sovereign indebtedness in the US pose to the global economy and markets. With…
The following article authored by esteemed political analyst RW Johnson, provides his most interesting insights into the “bad faith” bargaining that occurred in the lead-up to the GNU; the ANC’s…
For many years we have been consistent in our belief that offshore investments offer a far better set of opportunities for our South African-based investors than local options. At the…
Close to a year has passed since the rand tested new record lows in the wake of the Lady R debacle. With general elections just around the corner and markets…
The following article was commissioned by Dynasty for our clients and compiled by our research partner, Analytics Consulting, as represented on our Investment Committee. Notwithstanding the Decoder methodology outlined below,…
2024 is being billed as the biggest election year in history, with dozens of countries representing around 4 billion people expected to hold general or presidential elections. The unpredictability of…
Since the Global Financial Crisis, investors have become accustomed to keeping cash in US dollars, British pounds or euros, earning minimal or zero interest while simultaneously incurring administration fees. But…
While the rhetoric around prescribed assets subsided a few years ago due to the workers’ unions realising that their members would be among those most prejudiced should the policy be…
South Africa’s weak economy has placed National Treasury in the unenviable position of having to control a budget under deteriorating fiscal metrics. In addition, although the finance minister has suggested…
One of the most important choices you can make to secure your legacy is who you appoint as the executor of your estate. This has always been a complex and…
At Dynasty, we have historically preferred to place most of our clients’ offshore investments directly with offshore funds and asset managers rather than placing these instruments on global administration platforms…
For a few years Dynasty has utilised a “currency decoder” model developed by Dr Lance Vogel (a member of our investment committee), which is based on metrics such as the…
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machines.” – Economist, Paul Krugman “In the UK……
The mighty US dollar has held a central role in the world’s monetary system since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 defined all other currencies in relation to the American…
The current Rand/Dollar exchange rate level could be sustained if risk-on sentiment persist The Rand became massively oversold during May 2023, and substantially underperformed most other emerging market currencies. In…
(The following article has been compiled on a bespoke basis by our associate tax expert, Robyn Rogers, for Dynasty clients) Much has already been written about the surprise change by…
March witnessed the failure of certain regional banks in the US together with the collapse of Credit Suisse and its subsequent takeover by UBS. A repeat of the 2008 Global…
The gold price has gained 24% in the five months since its November lows, with central banks buying record amounts of the metal last year. Having recently returned from a…
Inexperienced investors sometimes think of stock markets as glorified casinos, where you can win big over the short-term, and lose your shirt thereafter. But this is only the case if…
With average GDP growth of around 9% between 1989 and 2022—as well as the world’s largest population—China came into its own as one of the world’s most exciting investment destinations…
In this recently produced video recording, Alec Hogg interviews RW Johnson on the ANC’s Elective Conference held this past December and the potential outcomes of the General Election scheduled for…
The JSE has started 2023 on the front foot, hitting record highs on 13 January with mining stocks and Naspers/Prosus leading the gains. This follows a difficult 2022, in which…
Global inflation and central bank responses will continue to be the dominant forces impacting financial markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released their Analytic Chapters in their World Economic Outlook…
Even though our clients often turn to highly-regarded specialists for help in estate planning, we regularly review wills that have overlooked some key issues. Many people also hold a range…
We published an article in April 2022 which highlighted why we thought that the rand was overvalued and why we believed it was at risk of a significant rerating. At…
ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and, according to PWC, investors are increasingly applying these non-financial factors as part of their analysis process to identify material risks and growth…
SA fundamentals are weak, but external factors will also play a role in determining the rand’s direction in the second half of 2022 The following article has been commissioned for…
The era of low interest rates and low inflation seems to be behind us, with most investors and governments admitting that inflation is more persistent rather than being of a…
Smithson represents a small carve-out within the equity component of our Dynasty house-view Funds and is our only component focussed on the small and mid-cap sectors. As such, Smithson has…
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his inaugural Budget Speech on 23 February 2022, the content of which has already been widely publicised and digested by different stakeholders. Of greater interest…
With international markets facing headwinds in 2022, one would have expected the rand to be on the back foot. After all, rising interest rates in the developed world, growing inflationary…
As mentioned in our Market Update, the quarter was characterized by concerns around higher-than-expected inflation, a more hawkish policy response by the US Fed in terms of rate hikes, and…
Key take-outs compiled by Reder van Rooyen (investment analyst at Dynasty) Metrics used in the investment process: As a precursor, the Fundsmith Equity Fund looks at the following metrics…
A consideration expressed by almost all our domestic clients when progressing their wealth externalisation strategies, is around whether the prevailing exchange rate is at an acceptable level for currency conversion…
Many of our clients are aware that the Dynasty House-view Funds include a relatively minor weighting to the global small and mid-cap sector via Smithson, a listed UK-listed Investment Trust.…
With the consumer price index in the US hitting a four-decade high in December 2021, rising 7% year-on-year, the investment conversation in 2022 will be dominated by persistent inflation and…
Two prominent South Africans have spoken out against the morass of corruption, poor economic policy, and mismanagement in which the country finds itself under ANC governance. Billionaire, Rob Hersov, and…
Given South Africa’s volatile currency and the fact that our economy represents less than half a percent of world GDP, astute investors will usually seek exposure to other territories. This…
An introduction by Dynasty Founder, Barry Dubb: The Constitutional Court ruling sentencing former President Zuma to 15 months in jail will probably only result in him sitting for 4 months with…
Retail investors’ interest in cryptocurrencies has again exploded over the past year, with Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride during this period prompting many to ask what role digital currencies may play in…
In April 2020, the rand touched lows of R19.34 to the US dollar in the wake of the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis and a decision from Moody’s to downgrade…
‘Responsible investing’ is becoming a mainstream movement, with more institutions evaluating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria when they screen potential investments. This is a development we are watching with…
We have many clients in South Africa who are content with their lifestyle and have no plans to move abroad any time soon. They enjoy the weather, have close family…
As factional politics in the ANC comes to a head, it is obvious to state that there will be winners and losers. The $64 000 question is: Who will win and…
Given South Africa’s structural inequalities, historic injustices and high poverty, taxing the rich to uplift the poor is an idea that resonates with many stakeholders in our society. It’s thus…
Investors often seek our advice as to which currency/currencies we would recommend for their offshore investments and why. Given how many funds are run from the UK and the Channel…
Over the years, clients have sought advice about structured products, especially at times when the markets are in turmoil or when they are concerned about downside risk in equities markets.…
On predicting uncertainty “We have in economics adopted an approach to thinking about uncertainty which assumes you can attach probabilities to more or less every conceivable event and that choice…
In my previous article in this two-part series, I looked at how consumer behaviour is changing as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. As people’s attitudes, spending patterns, working lives,…
We live in strange times with little visibility into what lies ahead for the markets in the months to come. Despite Covid-19 plunging every major economy in the world into…
In the times of the ancients, rulers like Roman emperor Nero would ‘debase’ their sovereign currencies by adding lower value metals to gold and silver coins to increase the supply…
This article was written by Professor Ivor Sarakinsky – bespoke for Dynasty clients. In times of the long knives, corruption is a double-edged sword. The factional battles within the ANC…
There is palpable anger in the land about corruption. The anger is largely focused on what the ANC is doing and failing to do about the scourge. If we separate…
Since the heavy crash and subsequent rally in global equity markets in the first half of this year, many investment market participants have been asking about the extent and timing…
This article has been compiled exclusively for Dynasty clients by Dr Lance Vogel from Analytics Consulting, who is represented on the Dynasty Investment Committee. It is a well-known fact that…
In times of crisis, it is only natural to want to look beyond the volatility and imagine what the new normal will be when things settle down. As we all…
This article was written by Professor Ivor Sarakinsky – bespoke for Dynasty clients. The clichés of a crisis being an opportunity are doing the rounds at the moment with Covid-19,…
Dynasty acknowledges that Covid-19 is first and foremost a humanitarian crisis. However, our consistent standpoint since the first regional lockdown on 23 January 2020 by the central Chinese government to…
The Covid-19 pandemic is a source of anxiety and suffering for many people around the world. While political leaders, scientists, NGOs, and other stakeholders are working on solutions to the…
Between the global COVID-19 crisis and the decision from Moody’s to downgrade South Africa’s sovereign credit rating in Q1 2020, the rand has had a torrid year so far. Is…
In a not unexpected move, Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to one notch below investment grade at Ba1. They also kept South Africa’s outlook as negative, indicating the…
Dynasty is deeply aware that Covid-19 is essentially a humanitarian crisis. Due to extensive media coverage on the human, social, scientific, and statistical aspects of the virus, we thought it…
Global Franchise’s defensive qualities provide support Equity markets have again fallen significantly as fears of a further spreading of the coronavirus, and likely stricter containment measures (particularly in the US),…
The Rand is likely to remain substantially undervalued as we wait for SA to be rebalanced out of the global bond index at the end of April 2020. The currency…
“Panic is highly contagious, especially in situations when nothing is known and everything is in flux.” – Stephen King Stock markets across the world had their worst day since the 2008…
Subsequent to the 2020 Budget Speech and the announcement of a shift from negative exchange controls to a capital flow management system to regulate cross-border capital flows, the Financial Surveillance…
As we correctly predicted, Tito Mboweni in this weeks budget speech decided against increasing the VAT and tax rates, in favour of reducing the government wage bill. Rather, he provided…
Please find below an article from Kevin Lings, Chief Economist, STANLIB: In 2019 the Rand strengthened by 2.8% against the US Dollar, after depreciating by -13.9% in 2018. In 2017…
We have faced situations where distributions to beneficiaries of offshore trusts are problematic where the recipients are tax resident in various countries around the globe, such as the US, UK,…
With 2019 rapidly unwinding, it is an opportune time to reflect on the year that was and to cast our eyes ahead to 2020. But first, let’s rewind to 2017,…
The step change in the Government fiscal numbers depicted in the Budget in Feb 2019 compared with those released in the MTBPS in Oct 2019 – only 6 months later…
Despite some blonde global leaders recent efforts, the world is more open to emigration than ever before, capital knows no borders, and it’s increasingly common for the members of a…
With more and more people formally emigrating from South Africa, many because they have been advised that emigration automatically terminates one’s tax residency in South Africa, it is worthwhile revisiting…
National Health Insurance (NHI), the Public Protector, Eskom, ANC infighting, Trump, Trade Wars, the Fed… the list goes on. These are all factors that have been impacting the rand of…
With the change to the exemption for foreign-earned income coming into effect on 1 March 2020, many expatriates are being advised to financially emigrate in order to ensure that they…
Deep divisions within the ANC remain We survived the election and the second wave of turbulence surrounding President Ramaphosa’s Cabinet announcement. Does this mean that there are blue skies ahead?…
The election circus The election circus has come and gone with the advertising posters on light posts all that remains. There were lots of harlequins, clowns and jesters whose antics…
Ivor Sarakinsky has been Dynasty’s primary consulting political analyst for some years now, he teaches at the Wits School of Governance, has a PhD in Political Studies from the University…
The old political year ended with spectacles of beach parties in Cape Town while the new calendar year begins with the ANC celebrating its 107 birthday. Both will shape the…
Growth assets disappointed in the recent past. It is understandable that some investors may want to give up. But only looking backwards may lead you to the wrong conclusions. Recent…
In my first article in this series about behavioural investment, I looked at some of the cognitive biases and emotional responses that prevent investors from optimising returns from their portfolios…
The news that South Africa has moved into a technical recession has rattled the rand and the local stock market at an already volatile time. As we survey the market,…
Following the turbulence of the UK Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump as the president of the US in 2016, the geopolitical climate has shown few signs of…
A question I commonly encounter from persons with foreign trusts (the Applicant) who applied for relief under the recent Special Voluntary Disclosure Programme, 2017 (SVDP) is, “should I keep the…
The good news is that we can all improve our decision-making when we understand the mostly unconscious thought processes that lead us to make poor choices. One of the most…
Energy drives industrial revolutions The Fourth Industrial Revolution is coming in the next decade, and no, contrary to the breathless rhetoric of the likes of the World Economic Forum, it…
To quote Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffet, who has delivered strong and consistent returns throughout more than half a century of bear and bull markets: “The world was uncertain on December…
In 2017, the Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded to Richard Thaler, who is an American economist and the Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics…
Brace yourself! The ANC’s transition is over. Zuma is out of office, the ANC has a new leader, and South Africa has a new President who has appointed a new…
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Coupled…
No matter how hard one shakes, oil and water will always eventually separate. The two ingredients are by nature incompatible. This analogy describes the outcome of the 54th ANC Electoral…
At last, the results of the eagerly-awaited ANC Conference are in. While we await the results of the election of the National Executive Committee, the Top Six outcome gives a…
A day before the start of the ANC’s 54th Electoral Conference and there is still little evidence upon which to predict the outcome. At one level, this ought to be…
The last US Presidential Election demonstrated a curious feature of democratic politics. Hillary Clinton, with the majority of votes, lost the US Presidency to Donald Trump who had more voting…
As the ANC’s Electoral Conference looms ever closer, the political environment becomes increasingly more uncertain. Fearing fear, as noted by Roosevelt at his presidential inauguration, may now camouflage the dynamics…
We at Dynasty are increasingly being requested by clients to pass an opinion on Bitcoin. In our view, the Bitcoin hype is directly correlated to the sharply appreciating trading price. …
Most people sign a Will as they have been informed that it is necessary to have a Will and to nominate an Executor and heirs but unfortunately, most people leave…
The South African rand has been under microscopic focus for most of 2017, with a few periods of respite. Though some commentators – and some indicators like the Big Mac…
Nazmeera Moola, economist and strategist at Investec Asset Managment, analyses the cost of Jacob Zuma’s Cabinet Reshuffle, four months after the fact.
There’s one word that defines the investment climate today, and that’s uncertainty. Emerging markets remain as volatile as ever – whether it’s the slide towards authoritarianism in Turkey, corruption scandals…
Alongside Venezuela, South Africa is one of the few countries that is not part of the longest phase of synchronised global growth we have seen for a good while. Jeremy Gardiner,…
Investors should expect uncertainty to prevail in South Africa beyond the parliamentary vote of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma taking place today and the ANC elective conference in December…
The newly introduced section 7C of the Income Tax Act (“the Act”) applies to any loan, credit or advance granted directly or indirectly to a trust by, inter alia, any…
With all the talk of radical economic transformation in the air, wealthy and middle-class South Africans should almost certainly expect the taxes they pay to rise over the next few…
More than a month has passed since President Jacob Zuma removed Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, and several other ministers and deputy ministers from their posts in a dramatic midnight cabinet…
As you will almost certainly be aware by now, Jacob Zuma finally showed his hand last night with the cabinet reshuffle, including the firing of Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas.…
We are currently facing a very challenging time as investors, where we are experiencing low returns and an adverse set of circumstances. We have referred to this kind of environment…
‘There is a Chinese curse which says “May he live in interesting times.” Like it or not we live in interesting times. They are times of danger and uncertainty; but…
Just when we thought it was safe to confirm that things had settled into a “new normal”, it seems perhaps they had not, the “old normal” is back and, to…
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