We await the final results of the General Election without bated breath. It seems that our predictions are going to be fairly spot on with little fluctuation in the polling numbers throughout the counting rally. At the time of writing, the polls currently stand at ANC 57.34%, the DA 21.05%, and the EFF 10.32%, and we are set to have the final result tomorrow, 11 May 2019.
Global News
- There has been renewed upset this week over the US-Sino Trade War as the US prepares to go ahead with plans to hike trade tariffs to 25%. Trouble started when President Trump threatened earlier this week that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion on Chinese goods from its current 10% to 25%. Despite this trade talks continued yesterday with a delegation of Chinese negotiators arriving in Washington. Since then China has taken a more defensive position in the trade talks, hardening their stance.
- Nearly 500 former Justice Department officials have released a statement arguing that the Mueller Report justifies charges and that Donald Trump would have been charged with obstruction of justice were he not the president – in US law a sitting president cannot be charged with a crime.
- Theresa May won a reprieve from her Conservative Party to continue as party leader. It was agreed that she would maintain her position until Brexit has been finalised.
- Iran threatened to abandon terms of its 2015 nuclear accord with Europe, asking Europe to throw an economic lifeline, amid US sanctions. This was met with a stony response from European leaders saying that they reject any ultimatums.
Local News
- So far in the polling results, the ANC looks to be taking around 57% of the national vote. This essentially secures their victory even though the counting is not finalised, as the biggest opposition to the ANC (the DA), is lagging well behind with less than 21% of the national vote.
- The surprise contender has been the Freedom Front Plus which has surged nationally to the fourth most popular party in South Africa – their mandate is to amend affirmative action and land reform to protect the interests of Afrikaners.
- On a provincial level the ANC has dropped slightly below 50% in Gauteng, with the DA at 28% – so there may be more coalition negotiations in Gauteng’s future. The DA has retained its stronghold, the Western Cape.
- Dynasty’s opinion is that Cabinet appointments will be the first significant factor to determine whether Ramaphosa has the mandate and courage to take South Africa forward.
- Here is a link to an article from Business Day where economists set out President Ramaphosa’s priorities after the elections. Hopefully, this election will give Ramaphosa the opportunity to make structural reforms, encourage investment, and bring economic growth.
- According to a report from NKC African Economics, South Africa’s economy may have contracted in the first quarter of 2019.
