It feels like a lifetime, but Tuesday this week marked the 100th day of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The US President has, during this time, already reshaped America’s place in the global order, refashioned parts of the US economy, downsized the federal government, and smashed numerous records, many of them negative.
When Trump was sworn in as the 47th US president, he proclaimed the start of a new golden age. He certainly launched into his second term with energy and commitment, but the result has been chaotic.
Here’s what 100 days of Trump has actually brought so far:
- Trump has issued more than 140 executive orders, covering everything from refugee status for South African Afrikaans farmers to shower head water pressure. This is more than any previous president.
- More than 200 lawsuits have been launched to challenge the Trump administration’s actions.
- Tens of thousands of federal workers have been laid off or taken voluntary packages as the Trump administration has taken a chainsaw to federal departments and agencies.
- Tariff rates have reached an effective rate of 28%, the highest level since 1901. This is despite U-turns and postponements of many planned tariffs.
- The S&P 500 fell nearly 7% between Trump’s inauguration and his 100th day – the third-worst performance in the first 100 days of a presidential term following Nixon and Ford. The Nasdaq was down nearly 9%.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has come back down to 4.2%, but its spike to nearly 4.6% on 11 April showed that US bonds have lost some appeal as a safe haven.
- The US dollar fell 9.5% against a basket of major developed market currencies, likewise, showing that investors no longer see the dollar as a safe bet in turbulent times.
- Gold has shown appeal as a flight-to-safety asset, soaring about 26% this year and briefly touching $3,500 a troy ounce.
- Trump’s impact on other global stock markets has varied, but some markets initially benefited from investors diversifying from US stocks. The FTSE 100 is up 11.3% year-to-date, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 6.7%, the Hang Seng is up 12.1%, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.2%, and the Shanghai composite is down 1.8%, all measured in dollars.
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to 60 points on April 7. It has traded above 20 points on many of Trump’s first 100 days, the level associated with heightened volatility.
- US GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the January-March period, but fortunately, inflation touched 2.4% in March, a six-month low. This may allow the Fed to intervene by cutting rates, although they expect the tariffs to be inflationary.
While most investors and business leaders expected a Trump presidency to be divisive and disruptive, they also anticipated an administration that would boost Wall Street and Main Street. Their hope was that tax cuts and deregulation would help to turbocharge the American economy while inflation continued to cool.
Instead, Trump has triggered a trade war that is causing global upheaval and uncertainty. The lack of a clear strategy and haphazard implementation has triggered fears of inflation and recession in the months to come. Meanwhile, the equally chaotic approach to streamlining government is yet to show in job reports.
While spending has remained robust, plunging consumer sentiment is another flashing red light for the months to come. For the first time this century, a Gallup Poll found that a majority (53%) of consumers in the US say their personal finances are getting worse. Many polls show low approval for Trump, especially among Democrats and independents.
Trump has temporarily walked back some tariffs as well as de-escalated his attacks on the Fed, but there are no signs that he will change course completely or embrace a more cautious and predictable approach to governance. This makes it difficult to foresee what comes next and whether Trump’s medicine will be good for the global and US economies in the longer term.
For now, fears of stagflation persist. However, Trump’s plans to implement $4.5 trillion in tax cuts may give markets a fillip if they get through Congress. Equities may also benefit if the Fed sees scope to cut interest rates in a slowing economy without stoking inflation. New trade deals between the US and its trading partners may restore predictability and stability.
For us, the major concern is that, as companies provide forward-looking guidance along with their first quarter results, few are able to predict what their future earnings will look like. With more than 100 days down and around 1,360 to go, the only certainty is that Trump is bound to cause more volatility and disruption before he leaves office.
“When companies start reporting, they won’t have anything they can actually say other than that everything is so uncertain. We’ve gone from the fog of a trade war to the fog of the earnings outlook.”
– Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management.
Global News
- Market performance during Trump’s first 100 days has been characterised by volatility and uncertainty due to his trade policies and tariffs, which have disrupted investor sentiment and led to the worst run since Gerald Ford in 1974, following Richard Nixon’s resignation. In response, Trump posted on social media: “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.”
- Although Trump acknowledged that his sweeping tariff program had risked imperiling him politically, he said on Wednesday that he would not rush deals to appease nervous investors. He has agreed that there was a significant political risk to his efforts, and that they could result in Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections if those perceptions don’t change – but said he remained determined to push on. “I just think that I’ll be able to convince people how good this is,” Trump said.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a sharp downturn in the US economy on Wednesday morning. GDP fell from a solid 2.4% growth in the final quarter of 2024 to a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter of 2025, the first economic decline in three years. The drop was largely driven by a surge in imports as consumers and businesses rushed to buy foreign goods ahead of new Trump-imposed tariffs. The stock market tumbled on the news, although it later recovered.
- Recent economic data points to a weakening US outlook across multiple fronts. While March’s 2.3% rise in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge suggests some progress toward the 2% target, underlying trends are more troubling. Consumer confidence dropped for the fifth consecutive month in April to near five-year lows, as concerns over tariffs and the labour market deepen. Hiring has also cooled, with private-sector job gains in April falling to the slowest pace in nine months. At the same time, manufacturing activity contracted more sharply, with declining orders and output reflecting the mounting impact of trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
- The US Treasury ramped up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter because of a smaller stockpile of cash than projected, which is a consequence of Congress having failed, as yet, to raise the federal debt limit. It now estimates $514 billion in net borrowing for April through to June, up from the $123 billion it had anticipated in February, it said on Monday. On Wednesday, it announced plans to sell $125 billion worth of coupon debt in its quarterly refunding next week to raise $30.8 billion in new cash.
- JPMorgan Chase & Company’s trading desk is turning tactically bullish on US equities, predicting that tailwinds, including Big Tech earnings and M&A will continue to lift stocks after the recent rout. Yet, it stated on Monday that a rally could fade within weeks as negative impacts of US tariffs begin dragging on the economy in the months ahead.
- Since the US raised levies on China to 145% in early April, cargo shipments from China to the US have plummeted by as much as 60%, and thousands of companies will need to replenish inventories by mid-May, according to figures cited by John McCown, a veteran industry executive. The supply shock could lead to empty shelves, higher prices, and significant layoffs in industries such as trucking, logistics, and retail, with some economists warning of “COVID-like” shortages. Even if hostilities ease, restarting transpacific trade will bring additional risks, including delays and bottlenecks at ports, and a surge in orders could overwhelm the network, causing further disruptions.
- The US and Ukraine signed an “economic partnership agreement” on Wednesday that will give Washington access to Kyiv’s rare earth minerals in exchange for establishing an investment fund in Ukraine. The deal comes after weeks of intense negotiations that at times turned bitter and temporarily derailed Washington’s aid to Ukraine. The US has indicated its willingness to help facilitate the end of the war with Russia.
- Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, as voters chose former central banker Mark Carney to manage the country’s response to Trump’s trade war. However, the margin of victory was narrow as the Liberals earned more than 43% of the national vote but may fall short of the 172 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons. This would result in Carney’s government having to work with other parties to pass budgets and other legislation.
- China’s factory activity hit the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from Trump’s tariffs and inducing calls for a speedy policy boost. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell more than expected to 49 from 50.5 in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. The non-manufacturing measure showed activity in construction and services grew less than forecast.
- China Investment Corporation, the nation’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, is cutting exposure in US private markets to curb risks as an escalating trade war between the two countries threatens its investments, according to sources. It could also reduce holdings in US private assets, which may include real estate and infrastructure. The company has already started seeking buyers for about $1 billion in private equity investments managed by US firms.
- Microsoft shares rose 8.4% on Thursday after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales and profit growth, which indicates that customer demand for cloud services is steady despite a wave of tariffs and economic turbulence. Total revenue in the fiscal third quarter increased 13%, with both that figure and adjusted profit a share coming in higher than expected. Microsoft has launched AI assistants in widely used productivity applications such as Office.
- Meta Platforms on Wednesday allayed Wall Street concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s trade war on advertising sales as first-quarter revenue to end-March beat expectations. Meta now expects to spend between $64 billion to $72 billion, up from its prior outlook of $60 billion to $65 billion, attributing some of its spending to a wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Its shares were up 4.5% on Thursday.
- Amazon.com is bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months, echoing concerns from a range of companies that tariffs, and related economic turmoil, could crimp consumer spending. When it reported results on Thursday, the world’s largest online retailer posted a decent first quarter but said operating profit in the current period would be weaker than Wall Street anticipated. The shares declined about 3% in extended trading after closing at $190.20 in New York.
- Apple’s much-awaited quarterly earnings report failed to calm investor concerns about its biggest challenges, including escalating tariff costs and a slowdown in China. The company’s shares declined as much as 4.2% in late trading on Thursday after Apple released second-quarter results that included worse-than-expected sales in China. The iPhone maker also warned that tariffs will increase costs this quarter, a sign that geopolitical tensions are taking a growing toll on the world’s most valuable business.
- Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are entering a price war over their obesity drugs as pressure mounts over high costs. Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy are competing for market share through deals with pharmacy benefit managers and telehealth platforms to boost accessibility. Despite Wegovy’s higher list price ($1,349 vs. $1,086), Novo is leveraging that margin to offer larger rebates in exchange for preferential insurance coverage, evident in CVS Health’s decision on Thursday to drop Zepbound in favour of Wegovy. This strategy helped Novo regain ground after losing market share, sparking investor concerns about pricing pressures and future profits, with Lilly’s stock falling 12% and Novo’s rising 2.1%.
- Temu appears to be passing on nearly all of Trump’s new import taxes to US consumers, more than doubling the cost of some products, which is likely to add to concern about the inflationary impact of tariffs. Previously exempted from any levies under the so-called ‘de minimis’ rule, parcels priced up to $800 now face an ad-valorem tax of 120% of a product’s value, or a per postal item fee of at least $100 from today.
- As at Thursday’s close the S&P 500 was 1.4% up for the week
Local News
- Foreign ministers from the BRICS group and its new members failed to agree on a joint statement at the end of a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, after Egypt and Ethiopia objected to supporting South Africa’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat. This marked a departure from the 2023 agreement backing Brazil, India, and South Africa for such positions as part of broader UN reform efforts. Despite the disagreement, Brazil’s foreign minister expressed hope that the group could still reach consensus at its upcoming leaders’ summit in July.
- Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said on Wednesday that a new National Budget will be tabled on 21 May. This follows his decision last week to scrap raising VAT 0.5 percentage points amid political parties calling for his resignation. Godongwana has acknowledged the unprecedented challenges facing the budget process, citing the complexities introduced by the new Government of National Unity. Also on Wednesday, the ANC’s Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula confirmed that a meeting has been scheduled with its coalition partners to avoid public clashes like the fallout over the recent fiscal framework debacle in Parliament.
- China’s interest in importing local agricultural products seems to represent a starting point for deeper trade discussions. On Monday, Chinese Ambassador to South Africa, Wu Peng, posted a message on X stating that he had held a good meeting with the CEOs of the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa and Fruit SA. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports valued at $218 billion.
- Eskom is seeking to assume control of electricity distribution in municipalities that are significantly behind on their bulk supply payments. CEO Dan Marokane has called on National Treasury to mandate that these indebted municipalities allow Eskom to manage their electricity services, arguing that the current municipal debt relief programme is ineffective. This initiative is part of Eskom’s strategy to address the escalating municipal debt, which has been deemed financially unsustainable by the utility.
- South Africa recorded a bigger-than-expected preliminary trade surplus of R24.8 billion in March, according to data released by the South African Revenue Service on Wednesday, as exports exceeded imports. The export numbers include trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, and Namibia. Import growth was driven by increased purchases of crude oil, passenger vehicles, and original equipment components. Economists had expected a smaller surplus.
- Sibanye-Stillwater has called on the National Prosecuting Authority to clamp down on illegal mining, which it says is harming investment prospects. The group witnessed its highest number of illegal mining incidents in more than a decade last year, with 540 incidents and 1,487 arrests recorded at its local gold operations. At its South African platinum group metals operations, the primary threat is the theft of copper cables, which cost the group R53.4 million in direct financial losses last year, a 52% decrease year-on-year.
- Anglo American shareholders on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a plan to demerge its platinum group metals business, which created a new entity: Valterra Platinum. This marks a critical step in the portfolio simplification efforts led by CEO Duncan Wanblad, with the sale of De Beers the last remaining cog in the fulfillment of the restructuring. Anglo American will exit De Beers when the time is right, the CEO said. Anglo American in February wrote down the value of De Beers to about $4.1 billion – the second write-down in less than three years.
- Combined Motor Holdings, which has 43 retail motor dealerships representing 29 brands such as Nissan, Ford, and Volvo across South Africa, on Tuesday reported that its headline earnings per share fell 25.6% in the year to end-February as vehicle affordability continues to wane among South African consumers. It dropped its dividend 22.3% on the back of total profit declining 26.2%, but its share price remained up 8.4% for the week.
- As at the time of writing, the rand was 1.4% stronger against the dollar and the ALSI was 1.5% up for the week
Sources: Business Report, AFP, BusinessLIVE, CNN, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily Maverick, New York Times, etc.
